Project Name
Document Name
1
East Anglia Alternative
Fuels Strategy
Draft public report
for
CPCA and
New Anglia LEP
March 2022
Element Energy Limited
Suite 1, Bishop Bateman Court
Thompson’s Lane
Cambridge
CB5 8AQ
Tel: 01223 852499
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1 Foreword
ï‚· To be completed by CPCA and New Anglia LEP
ï‚· Example contents:
o Context and need for strategy
o General role of CPCA/New Anglia LEP
o Next steps and implementation
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2 Introduction
2.1 Action needs to be taken now
Emissions from human activity has caused approximately 1oC of warming since pre-industrial levels. The
effects of this are already being felt globally with more frequent extreme weather events, sea level rise and
loss of habitats.
In 2019 the UK became the first major economy to pass a net zero emissions law which requires the UK to
bring greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by 2050. Collaborative efforts between national and local
government is vital in order to meet the national net zero ambition.
The transport sector accounts for the highest share of national CO2 emissions (~25%), and therefore will need
to undergo deep transformation to meet the UK’s 2050 net zero target. In order to successfully reduce transport
emissions a two-fold approach is needed; switching to Alternative Fuels Vehicles (AFVs) and changing
consumers transport behaviour through incentivising modal shift.
The UK government have set three key objects to support transport decarbonisation which include:
ï‚· Accelerating the shift to AFVs by funding charging infrastructure and trialling zero emission Heavy
Goods Vehicles (HGVs)
ï‚· Investing in green public transport, including the electrification of railways and bus routes
 ‘Phase out’ of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles through possible sales bans. These include
the phase out of ICE cars and vans by 2030, diesel buses by 2030 and diesel HGVs by 2035-2040
Box 1
: Understanding the impact of rising
global temperatures
The IPCC has estimated that global warming of
1.5oC and 2oC will be exceeded this century
unless deep reductions in greenhouse gas
emissions occur in the coming decades.
We have already started to experience climate
related impacts and risks to health, livelihoods,
food security, water supply, human security,
and economic growth. The magnitude of these
impacts vary a lot depending on the amount of
warming. Changes in several climatic drivers
will be more widespread at 2oC compared to
1.5oC of warming and even more pronounced
for higher warming levels1.
Degre
es of Impact:
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2.2 Objectives of the Alternative Fuels Strategy
The Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Combined Authority (CPCA) and New Anglia LEP are undertaking work to decide informed action to mitigate and
adapt to climate change. A key component of this is to establish an integrated and sustainable transport network that supports local growth.
The Combined Authority and New Anglia LEP commissioned an Alternative Fuels Strategy (AFS) for East Anglia, that has been developed alongside the
Combined Authority’s Local Transport and Connectivity Plan and work conducted by the Norfolk and Suffolk Clean Growth Taskforce. The key aims of the
AFS are to:
1. Support clean growth
2. Support the decarbonisation aims of Local Authorities
3. Accelerate the uptake of AFVs in the region
4. Improve air quality
5. Provide a combined collaborative vision
6. Support the creation of commercial opportunities
2.3 Scope of the Alternative Fuels Strategy
This strategy focuses on how the uptake of alternatively fuelled land vehicles can be boosted across East Anglia, what and how much infrastructure
(such as electric vehicles charge points) needs to be delivered to support this transition, and other policies and actions that will be necessary to deliver a
decarbonised transport system. The AFVs covered in this strategy include battery electric, hydrogen fuel cell and renewable natural gas vehicles, in each case
the study considers the emissions of the production and use of the fuels but not the production of the vehicles.
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2.4 AFS focus area overview and review of the current transport system
2.4.1 AFS focus area overview
The area covered by the East Anglia AFS includes the 18 Local
Authorities that together comprise Norfolk, Suffolk, Peterborough and
Cambridgeshire.
From a transport perspective, the area is also governed by two sub-
national transport bodies: Transport East in Norfolk and Suffolk and
England’s Economic Heartlands in Cambridgeshire and Peterborough.
Spatially, East Anglia is predominately rural, with rural areas making
up 88% of landmass1. However, the region also includes the 4 major
urban settlements of Norwich, Cambridge, Peterborough and Ipswich.
Moreover, the majority of residents live in urban cities or market towns,
which together host over half of the population1. There are therefore
significant variations in the requirements of both people and places
across the region.
Many solutions that could deliver a decarbonised transport system in
urban areas will be less effective in a rural setting, and vice-versa. This
AFS has hence sought to cater for regional variations, by suggesting
solutions that can be applied flexibly with a place-based approach.
1 Office for National Statistics. 57% of the population of the region live in urban cities or towns.
Figure 1: Map of the in-scope study region
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2.4.2 Where we are now: Transport modal share and emissions
Cars remain the mode of choice for passenger transport in East Anglia. Nearly
two-thirds of all journeys in the region are made by car, making car dependence
much higher than England as a whole2, a difference reflective of the area’s rurality.
Car trips equate to an even higher proportion of the distance travelled per person,
and proportion of transport emissions.
Active travel (walking and cycling) is the next most popular form of passenger
transport across the region, if popularity is measured by the proportion of trips. Just
under a third of all trips are either walked or cycled, however this inevitably translates
to a much smaller proportion of the distance travelled per person, due to the relative
shortness of active travel journeys.
Public transport (PT) makes up less than a tenth of trips in East Anglia.
However, PT journeys (in particular rail) tend to be longer. This means that a fifth of
the distance travelled per person is by bus, rail, coach or minibus.
Freight transport by rail, HGV and vans has also been considered in this strategy.
Freight moved by these modes contributes two-fifths of the emissions of the East
Anglian transport system as a whole, clearly indicating that decarbonising passenger
transport can only get us part of the way to net zero transport. Actions to decarbonise
freight have hence been recommended as part of the AFS.
2 54% of passenger journeys in England are made by car, Office for National Statistics.
Figure 2
: Breakdown of passenger trips, distance and emissions by
mode
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2.4.3 Where we are now: AFV uptake and supporting infrastructure
AFV uptake and the roll-out of supporting infrastructure in East Anglia
remains low. Less than one percent of private cars and vans in the
region are currently EVs. There is significant variation in uptake across
the 18 present Local Authorities - Peterborough and Cambridge have the
highest uptake, while Fenland and Great Yarmouth have the lowest.
The public charging network across East Anglia is also at a relatively
early stage of development. Figure 3 shows the current sites of public
electric vehicle charge points, as well as the major roads connecting the
region. The majority of charge points are clustered around key settlements,
or distributed along the road network, with relatively few charge points found
in between. The focus of the charge point network is expected to shift away
from en-route charging as BEV range improves.
Uptake of alternative fuels heavy duty vehicles is also low. Of the over
5,000 buses in East Anglia, just two are electric (in Cambridge)3. In addition,
of the over 24,000 HGVs registered in the region, less than fifty are known
to run on natural gas. There are just two semi-private gas stations in East
Anglia, and no known plans for a hydrogen refuelling station.
3 This is due to increase however, following the successful applications of CPCA and Norfolk County Council to the ZEBRA funding scheme, who will deliver
30 double-decker and 15 single-decker electric buses respectively.
Figure 3: Map of the East Anglian public charging network
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3 Understanding the future of transport in East Anglia
The East Anglian transport system will need to transform in the coming decades to meet the climate targets. To achieve a decarbonised transport system,
changes to the types of vehicles, the fuels used for transport, the supporting infrastructure and the way in which we interact with all of these are needed. Crucial
to smoothly navigating this is a quantification of the exact extent of changes needed and expected, especially in terms of:
ï‚· The number and type of different AFVs that could enter the transport system in the coming years
ï‚· The infrastructure that will be needed to support these AFVs and also deliver economic growth
ï‚· The future demand for energy vectors that are currently in relatively low use for transport, including electricity, hydrogen and renewable natural gas
ï‚· The level of behavioural change needed to achieve a decarbonised transport system in time to avoid significant levels of global warming
To that effect, the development of this strategy has included quantitative modelling of a variety of scenarios leading to the decarbonisation of the East Anglian
transport system, which have been used to inform the development of the AFS. Figure 4 shows example outputs from the modelling, which highlight the
difference in timescales expected for the decarbonisation of the light and heavy-duty sectors in East Anglia.
Figure 4: Forecasts for the decarbonisation trajectories of the light and heavy-duty vehicle stock in East Anglia out to 2040
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4 Action plan for decarbonising East Anglian transport
The purpose of the AFS is to chart a course that can be taken to boost AFV
uptake in East Anglia and ultimately achieve a decarbonised transport system.
Therefore, an action plan and roadmap for action have been developed, and
summarised in this document . The process for developing the action plan and
roadmap is shown in Figure 5. Figure 5 illustrates how the evidence base
generated has been converted into the final action plan and roadmap, in
collaboration with local stakeholders such as Local Authorities and key
representatives of the private sector such as the Cambridge Norwich Tech
Corridor.
With input from local stakeholders, the evidence base from the modelling and
policy review was used to generate a preliminary long-list of actions that need
to be taken to boost AFV uptake. This long-list was then refined based on cost,
deliverability, co-benefits and CO2 impact, with further input from local
stakeholders, and has consequently been developed into the action plan and summarised in the roadmap for action.
The actions are split into three broad categories, which are explained in more detail in the ensuing sections:
1. Actions to expand electric vehicle charging infrastructure;
2. Actions to encourage AFV uptake; and
3. Actions to deliver a modal shift and encourage behavioural change.
Figure 5
: Process by which the action plan and roadmap have been developed
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4.1 Transitioning to alternative fuels: Expanding EV charging infrastructure
Access to charging infrastructure is a key enabler of electric vehicle uptake. Current EV owners do the
majority (~75%)4 of their charging privately, at their home driveway or garage. Public infrastructure is then
used to occasionally supplement this when EV owners are parking at a destination or travelling long distances
and charging en-route. As EV uptake grows the demand for public charging infrastructure will grow
significantly5. In part this will be due to the increased number of EVs, but the problem will be exacerbated by
the fact that later EV adopters are more likely not to have access to off-street parking
(driveways/garages), and so will be more reliant on public charging infrastructure.
For public charging infrastructure to fully enable EV uptake, charge points need to be equitably distributed,
and a suitable number and technology type need to be available. In addition, to avoid slowing EV adoption
charging infrastructure needs to be deployed ahead of charging demand.
To achieve the successful deployment of a public charging network across East Anglia:
o There should be a unified vision and approach to charging infrastructure deployment to ensure
interoperability.
o The deployment of public charging infrastructure by private sector players should prioritise regions with low off-street parking access.
o The deployment of charging infrastructure needs supporting in more challenging/ uncommercial areas to ensure there is an equitable distribution of
charge points across the region.
o Wider public infrastructure could be supported by co-locating public transport services (bus, rail, park and ride), cycling infrastructure, freight
consolidation centres and refuelling stations alongside charging infrastructure.
o Continued and regular communication between all players is needed. This includes between public sector members such as; the Combined Authority,
New Anglia LEP, Local Planning, Transport and Highway Authorities, and private sector players such as; local businesses, the electricity supplier,
charge point operators and private land owners.
4 Electric Vehicle Charging Behaviour National Grid ESO
5 Element Energy modelling based on UKPN Consumer Transformation scenario
Figure 6: Forecast public
EVCPs required in
East Anglia in key years
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4.2 Transitioning to alternative fuels: Wider action
In recent years there has been an increase in the uptake of electric light duty vehicles such as battery
electric and plug-in hybrid cars and vans, but uptake remains low across the entire stock. Uptake has
started to accelerate due to support from government policy, an improvement in EV products and a
decrease in the upfront purchase price. AFV uptake in lorries has also started to increase at a national
level, however, uptake greatly lags behind cars and vans.
Significant support remains essential to the uptake of AFV’s, to achieve local and regional transport
decarbonisation targets. This is particularly important for fleets and harder to decarbonise market
segments (such as the heaviest HGVs). Key actions needed to accelerate the uptake of AFVs should
especially focus on high emitting groups, including:
High milage vehicles: User groups such as taxis, private hire vehicles (PHVs) and shared car fleets
contribute a significantly higher proportion of emissions per vehicle than an average car or van due to their
high mileages. Greater emissions savings are therefore achieved by converting each of these vehicles to
an EV early.
Business fleets: Businesses have influence over a high number of vehicles, such as company cars,
service fleets or even employees’ personal cars being used for work (‘grey fleets’). Local government
should try to support local businesses to transition their fleets to ZEVs and address grey fleet emissions.
To help their employees switch to an EV, businesses need to make EVs an option and ensure access to sufficient charging infrastructure at work and home.
HGVs: Hydrogen and battery electric HGVs are currently undergoing government funded trials. Local government can advertise trial opportunities to local fleets
and support a local plan for a connected refuelling/recharging network across the region.
Bus operators: Local operators should try to set concrete decarbonisation targets to work towards. Local government can support these efforts through their
enhanced partnerships. Financial and logistical barriers need to be removed to allow targets to be met for example through leveraging national grants and
sharing best practice advice.
Alongside directly encouraging AFV uptake, AFVs need to be made a more attractive option than using a petrol of diesel vehicles. This includes prioritising EVs
over higher emission vehicles when implementing regulations and licencing conditions.
Figure 7: Potential
breakdown by fuel type of car
stock across East Anglia (tens of thousands)
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4.3 Delivering a modal shift and encouraging behaviour change
4.3.1 The need for actions which target modal shift and behaviour change
Relying on the uptake of AFV technologies alone, however, can only go so far in achieving decarbonisation. Moreover, to ensure that global warming targets
are not exceeded, it is paramount that significant emissions reductions are achieved before 2030, this means relying on AFV and behaviour change together.
In such a scenario East Anglia transport emissions could be reduced to almost half current levels by 2030Error! Reference source not found..
Figure 8: Year-on-year and cumulative emissions profiles for the East Anglia transport system in two different scenarios, highlighting the
importance of policy that focuses on modal shift and behaviour change ahead of 20306
6 Note that the value of all emissions has been calculated on a well-to-wheel basis (considering all emissions related to fuel production, processing, distribution,
and end use).
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4.3.2 Actions to deliver a modal shift and behaviour change
Actions to achieve emissions reductions of this scale and in the given timescale should target both passenger and freight transport.
Passenger:
When it comes to passenger transport the aim should be to move as many journeys as possible
up the travel hierarchy which is shown in Figure 9.
To achieve this there are two main themes to actions that should be taken. Firstly, alternatives
to private cars should be strongly incentivised. This includes making public transport cheaper
and more efficient as well as making active travel safer and more attractive. There will always be
some journeys that need to be made by car – and for these, car clubs offer a more sustainable
option. Secondly, private car use should be made a less attractive option for certain journeys,
and in some instances disincentivised. This could include measures such as limiting new road
building and establishing pedestrianised zones in urban areas.
Clearly, there is variation in private car dependence between rural and urban communities, and
any disincentives may impact low-income households to a greater extent than others. It is
therefore essential to achieving a just transition that all action is taken coherently. Where private
cars are disincentivised, a cheaper and better alternative transport option always needs to be
offered.
Freight:
A modal shift is also vital with respect to freight movements. There are a few key actions, which if taken would significantly contribute to reducing emissions.
o Shifting freight from HGVs to rail – moving more goods onto railways is more sustainable than moving goods by road. In East Anglia it is important to
increase capacity, including addressing bottlenecks on the Felixstowe to Nuneaton rail route.
o Consolidation – establishing consolidation centres for freight is an essential step to having fewer HGV and van journeys across the region.
o Last mile delivery - cargo bikes are a more sustainable option than vans for ‘last mile’ delivery services, and should be used in place where possible.
Figure 9: Travel hierarchy for passenger transport
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4.4 Roadmap for action
The roadmap for action is shown in Figure 10 below. The roadmap summarises key recommended actions and also includes target milestones for transport
decarbonisation by 2030 and 2040. The actions included are those considered most essential from the accompanying action plan, while the milestones are
outputs from the technical modelling conducted as part of the earlier development of the strategy.
The roadmap is broken down into three main categories. The categories are the same as the themes described in Section 4 of this document. The categories
displayed on the roadmap are as follows:
 AFV uptake (EV charging) – the actions and milestones relevant to deploying EV charging infrastructure. The milestones are an estimated upper
bound for the number of public EVCPs that could be needed in that year (both public and private sector), split by en-route, destination and public
residential charge points.
 AFV uptake (wider-action) – the actions and milestones that will either directly or indirectly lead to the uptake of AFVs. The milestones in this category
focus on the percentage of the regional vehicle stock that could be AFVs at the given date, split out by mode.
 Modal shift – these are the actions and milestones related to shifting both passenger and freight transport onto more sustainable modes. The milestones
are an indication of the shift modelled as achievable in the given year.
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Figure 10: Roadmap summarising key actions set-out in the action plan as well as milestone targets
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5 Acknowledgements
The East Anglia Alternative Fuels Strategy was developed by Element Energy on behalf of the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Combined Authority (CPCA)
and the New Anglia Local Enterprise Partnership (New Anglia LEP). This document is one of three core reports underpinning the strategy. A technical report
compiling all evidence used, and a detailed action plan are also in the ownership of the Combined Authority and New Anglia LEP.
All work undertaken for the Alternative Fuels Strategy was done so with input from local stakeholders. Many attended multiple workshops, providing key data
and insights that have been vital in developing the study. The authors would like to thank the following groups:
Babergh District Council New Anglia Local Enterprise Partnership
Breckland District Council Norfolk and Suffolk Clean Growth Taskforce
Cambridge City Council Norfolk and Suffolk Transport Board
Cambridge Norwich Tech Corridor (private sector
focused) Norfolk Broads Authority
Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Combined Authority Norfolk County Council
Cambridgeshire County Council North Norfolk District Council
East Cambridgeshire District Council Norwich City Council
East Suffolk Council Peterborough City Council
Fenland District Council South Cambridgeshire District Council
Great Yarmouth Borough Council South Norfolk and Broadland District Council
Greater South East Energy Hub Suffolk County Council
