Norfolk and Suffolk Glean Growth Task Force
Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Combined Authority
New Anglia Local Enterprise Partnership
Katherine Orchard
Richard Riley
Edward Wilson
Abigail Willis
Celine Cluzel
9th March 2022
2
The Alternative Fuels Strategy and Action Plan for East Anglia has been commissioned to
enable the transition to net zero emissions while supporting recovery objectives
Project context and key objectives
The Alternative Fuels Strategy (AFS) for East Anglia aims to:
•Support clean growth by providing the necessary
infrastructure for businesses, residents and commuters
•Support the decarbonisation aims of Local Authorities
that have declared climate emergencies
•Accelerate the uptake of EVs and hydrogen vehicles in
the region which has historically been behind the
national average
•Improve air quality through uptake of zero emissions
vehicles
•Provide a combined vision across the region to result in
greater impact
•Support the creation of commercial opportunities and
develop an innovative supply chain
Today’s objectives
•Remind everyone of the project approach, outputs, and
timeline
•Give a brief overview of the technology uptake scenarios
•Discuss the suggested actions for the region
3
The project has been delivered between September and March, divided across two core
Phases
The key objectives of the Alternative Fuels Strategy and
Accompanying action plan are to provide:
•An understanding of the current policy and funding
landscape for alternative fuels at local and national
level
•An evidence base of likely alternative fuel uptake and
best practice policy for supporting this uptake
•A costed and deliverable programme of measures to
address barriers to uptake, which reflects the specific
challenges and opportunities of the region
Phase 1 –Alternative Fuels Strategy
Phase 2 –
Action Plan
1. Policy review
2. Funding opportunities review
1. Existing vehicles and infrastructure
2. Scenarios for projected uptake
3. Residential charging demand analysis Targeted engagement and
workshops to:
•Gather data, align priorities
and identify local
opportunities for innovation
and investment
•Gain feedback and buy-in
into regional actions
1. Refinement and prioritisation of actions
2. Development of Strategy Document
WP 1: Review of current situation
WP 2: Alternative Fuels Uptake WP 4: Stakeholder
engagement
WP 3: Opportunities and actions
WP 5: Development of the Action Plan
1. Alternative fuels opportunities by mode
2. Opportunities for innovation
3. Review of best practice
4. Long-list of recommended actions
Key outputs
•Phase 1: Technical report detailing evidence base
•Phase 2:
Public-facing strategy document
Costed and deliverable action plan
5
Schematic showing our approach to the modelling scenarios
Sources: Element Energy modelling for UKPN
Current
transport system
‘Consumer
Transformation’
(high
electrification)
‘System
Transformation’
(high hydrogen)
Scenario 1:
Urban focus
Core Scenarios from UKPN Additional Scenarios
Scenario 2:
Rural and
urban focus
Scenario 3:
Max
ambition
scenario
7
We have modelled AFV uptake in two core scenarios, relating to futures with high-
electrification and high-hydrogen usage
During our work for UKPN we developed two scenarios which reflect the most likely directions UK transport could develop towards
‘Consumer Transformation’
‘System Transformation’
Narrative
•
Net zero achieved by 2050 due to widespread
electrification of all transport applications
•
Net zero achieved in 2050 by relying on
hydrogen to decarbonise the more difficult
sectors (including heavy transport)
Key shared assumptions
•
With the end of ICE and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV) sales in 2030 and 2035 respectively,
sales of EVs, especially cars and vans, continues to ramp up, resulting in widespread uptake of electric
cars and vans as battery costs fall
•
Taxis, motorcycles private hire vehicles are decarbonised through electrification
Key contrasting
assumptions
•
Energy densities improve and charging rates
increase, making electric HDVs cost effective
and suitable for daily operations by mid-2030’s
•
Hydrogen only deployed for a limited number
of use cases (double shifted HGVs and long
distances coaches)
•
Global production of hydrogen fuel cells ramps
up, enabling large scale supply of zero emission
buses, coaches and HGVs by mid 2030’s
8
The core scenarios vary in their energy demand from each fuel source, resulting in a different
2050 mix
Modes included: Car, Taxi, PHV, Coach, Bus, Minibus, Motorcycle, Van, HGV, Rail
10
20
5
25
15
0
30
7.6
7.6
2020 2040
12.3
0.3
0.8
10.7
10.8
0.3
2050
11.9
24.5
2025
2.2
0.9
7.3
2.2
2030
1.4
5.7
10.1
0.4
7.0
0.5
0.5
22.6
18.1
Fuel consumption (TWh)
Petrol Diesel HydrogenElectricity RNG
30
10
5
25
20
15
0
10.6
12.3
11.9
1.4
2020
10.7
0.7
22.7 0.6
2025
7.3
2.0
4.9
0.3
1.5
2030
2.2
1.6 0.9
2040
0.1
5.5
2.7
2050
24.5
18.5
10.9
8.4
7.4
Energy demand from transport 2020 -
2050: Consumer Transformation Energy demand from transport 2020 -
2050: System Transformation
•Petrol and diesel provides for 99.5%
of current transport energy demand,
however this would reduce to less
than 2% by 2050 under both
scenarios
•Both scenarios use RNG as a
bridging fuel for HGV
decarbonisation, with consumption
peaking in 2035
•System Transformation requires
around double the amount of RNG
•Electricity and hydrogen will
dominate the 2050 energy mix, with
a split of 92%/7% and 66%/32% in
the Consumer and System
Transformation scenarios
Key themes and trends
9
Both scenarios see BEVs make up over 50% of the East Anglia car stock from 2033, and
ultimately 98% by 2050
0
500
1,000
2,000
1,500
204020302020 2050
1,288
1,452 1,548 1,517
East Anglia car stock (‘000)
BEV carsPetrol cars Diesel cars PHEV cars FCEV cars
East Anglia car stock split by powertrain 2020 - 2050
•The car stock and mix by powertrain is projected to
be the same in both the Consumer and System
Transformation scenarios
•These scenarios see a total car stock increase from
1.3M units to a peak of 1.6M units in 2040, before
slowly decreasing to 1.5M units in 2050
•The mix by powertrain will gradually shift from
petrol and diesel car dominated to BEVs, with BEVs
making up over 50% of the stock from 2033
onwards, ultimately reaching 98% in 2050
•PHEVs will increase in stock share through to the
mid-2030’s, at which point numbers will start to
decrease as new PHEV sales end from 2035
•A small number of FCEVs are expected to enter the
stock, reaching a 1.7% share by 2050
Key themes and trends
10
Norfolk SuffolkCambs &
Peterborough
Broadland
Gt Yarmouth
Breckland
KL and WN
North Norfolk
Norwich
Peterborough
1,440
South Norfolk
Cambridge
East Cambs
Fenland
Hunt’shire
South Cambs
540
Babergh
1,240
East Suffolk
Ipswich
500
Mid Suffolk
West Suffolk
750 670 850
760
560 610
1,510 1,440
680
1,080 960
400 420
1,000
East Anglia could need 15,000 charge points as soon as 2030, and almost 30,000 by 2040 in
the Consumer Transformation scenario
Notes: ‘Current’ is based on Zap Map data as of Oct 21 as shown here, and the assumption that slow/fast chargers have two charge points, while rapid and ultra rapid chargers
have one charge point. Note also that workplace charging is not included here. Further detail on charge point modelling assumptions are given here
28,200
29,900
5,400
1,322
15,400
26,700 31,300
Public residential Destination En-route
Forecast EV charge point requirements in 2030 by Local Authority
Forecast EV charge points required in East Anglia out to
2050 in the Consumer Transformation scenario
•The number of charge points required will increase significantly out to 2040 in the Consumer Transformation scenario, at which point slightly fewer will be required to 2050, as
each charge point becomes increasingly powerful and thus able to serve a greater number of EVs in a given time interval
•The share of en-route chargers required would reduce to just 5% in 2050, as en-route chargers become prioritised for ultra-rapid charging and hence their average power
increases relative to other charge points
38%
40%
40%
42%
43%
44%
90%
51%
52%
52%
52%
51%
50%
11%
6%
6%
4%
2025Current
8%
2030
7%
2035 2040
6%
2045
5%
2050
11
3
6
7
3
4
10
12
6
2
2025
1
2030 2035 2040 2045
Up to five times more hydrogen refuelling stations would be needed by 2050 in the System
Transformation scenario than the Consumer Transformation scenario
Assumptions: HRS –based on average number of H2HGVs per HRS (288 in 2030, 365 in 2050, and scaled according to total hydrogen demand for cars and HGVs. RNG –Public and private stations refuel an
average of 450 and 150 trucks per day respectively, with public stations accounting for 88% of total RNG fuel demand. Source: Element Energy for Cadent, Future of Gas In Transport, 2020)
2
4
6
6
2
6
15
24
30
2030 20402035 2045 2050
Number of Hydrogen refuelling stations required in East Anglia
in each scenario Number of RNG refuelling stations required in East Anglia in
each scenario
•Whilst RNG acts as a bridging fuel for HGVs, a small number of refuelling
stations will be needed throughout East Anglia
•The System Transformation scenario would require the most stations, at
a peak of 12 in 2035
•This is because RNG stations have the potential to be repurposed as
(HRS), thus higher gas HGV uptake would be expected in a scenario
leading to a high hydrogen HGV uptake
•From 2030 onwards, an increasing number of hydrogen refuelling
stations (HRS) will be needed in either scenario, with significantly more
required in the Consumer Transformation scenario, to supply the
growing fleet of hydrogen HGVs and slight uptake of hydrogen fuel cell
electric cars
Consumer Transformation
System Transformation
Consumer Transformation
System Transformation
13
Scenario narratives: as well as encouraging AFV uptake additional policy is focused on
behavioural change and a modal shift
Policy focuses on instigating a shift away
from private car use and road freight in
urban areas by 2030.
Improved public transport services and a
greater number of walking and cycling
routes through towns and cities allow
passengers to depend less on cars for
travel. Similarly, an increase in rail capacity
for freight into urban areas reduces the
proportion of freight moved by HGVs,
whilst increased use of cargo bikes reduces
last-mile van freight.
Overall transport demand follows the
baseline growth as projected in the
Consumer Transformation scenario.
Policy targets a modal shift in passenger
and freight transport across both rural and
urban areas by 2030.
Public transport and active travel options
are made significantly more effective
across the region as a whole, allowing a
shift away from private car use. Rail
capacity for freight is also increased,
ensuring fewer goods are moved by HGV,
whilst cargo bikes continue to reduce last-
mile van freight in urban areas.
Overall transport demand follows the
baseline growth as projected in the
Consumer Transformation scenario.
Policy targets a modal shift in passenger
and freight transport by 2030,as outlined
in the rural and urban focus scenario.
On top of this, policy ensures total demand
for passenger and freight transport does
not exceed current levels.
By adopting policies that support place
based solutions to improve and reinstate
service in communities, average trip
distances to amenities and services
become shorter, offsetting the increasing
population.
Freight consolidation ensures increased
efficiency in the movement of goods by
HGVs and vans, resulting in fewer journeys.
Scenario 1: Urban focus Scenario 2: Rural and urban focus Scenario 3: Max ambition
1 2 3
14
Transport emissions could reduce by 47% in a max ambition scenario by 2030, relative to
today
Emissions (million tonnes CO2e)
East Anglia transport emissions 2020 –2050 by
scenario
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
4
0
2
6
8
38%
47%
•Policy that instigates behavioural change would achieve emissions
reductions much more quickly than policy solely focused on technology
uptake and improvement
•This is seen by the extra 11% emissions reduction achieved by 2030 in the
Max ambition scenario when compared to the Consumer Transformation
scenario, allowed by the additional policy focus on areas such as a shift
away from private cars
Cumulative emissions
(million tonnes CO2e)
2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
100
40
0
60
20
80
Cumulative transport emissions in East Anglia 2020-
2050 in the modelled scenarios
Consumer Transformation
Max ambition
Rural and Urban focus
System Transformation
Urban Focus
•A total of 10 million tonnes less CO2e would be emitted between 2020
and 2050 in the Max ambition scenario (86 Mt CO2e), when compared to
the Consumer Transformation scenario (96 Mt CO2e)
•As both scenarios have similar emissions in 2050, this highlights the
importance and potential impact of policy that achieves significant
emissions reductions by 2030
15
2,000
4,000
6,000
2,008
158
359
1,484
1,283
120
1,116
974
3,824
246
965
3,784 1,082
362
1,426
1,076
954
432150
1,343
4,505
1,045
834
405141
7,234
4,229 4,099
1,619
Cars could make up 35% of transport emissions in 2030 in a Max ambition scenario, relative
to the 52% they contribute today
East Anglia transport emissions in 2030 by scenario relative
to 2020, split by mode
Car
Van
HGV
Coach, bus and minibus
Rail
Taxi and PHV
Motorcycle
Emissions (thousand
tonnes CO2e)
2030
•Cars currently make up 52% of total transport
emissions1, however this would fall to 45% by
2030 in the Consumer Transformation scenario,
and 35% in the Max ambition scenario
•Emissions from cars would reduce by 64% by
2030 relative to today in the Max ambition
scenario, versus a reduction of 50% in the
Consumer Transformation scenario
•Due to the significant increase in bus and coach
use in the Max ambitions scenario, emissions
would increase slightly through to 2030, despite
an increasing portion of zero emissions vehicles
in the stock, and the emissions share would
increase from 5% to 11% for these modes
52%
45%
38%
35%
35%
21%
25%
26%
26%
27%
18%
22%
23%
23%
22%
9%
25%
50%
75%
3%
2020
5%
2% 2%
5%
Consumer
Transformation Urban focus
4%
11%
Rural and
Urban focus
4%
11%
Max
ambition
Emissions share
by mode
Key themes
Notes: 1 –As a percentage of all modelled transport modes.
17
Multi-modal hubs: Areas with multiple overlapping parameters should
be investigated further for the deployment of hubs
* Filtered to only show traffic flow above 20,000 vehicles per day; through discussions with CPOs this is the minimum traffic flow for en-route
charging to be deployed
Cambridge
Peterborough Norwich
Great Yarmouth
Ipswich
Bury St
Edmunds
Thetford Ipswich
Norwich
Peterborough
Cambridge
Traffic flow, major roads* Park & Ride sites, and truck stops Brownfield sites
Key amenities
100k
vehicles
20k
vehicles
Traffic flow Amenity Density
Map
key: High
Moderate Park & Ride sites
Long haul truck stops
Regional truck stops
Brownfield sites
Key Locations are: in and around city centres and along major traffic routes –other parameters (such as grid connection, accessibility and
site size) need to be considered to determine precise locations of appropriate sites
18
Hydrogen for transport: East Anglia has strong opportunities for local hydrogen production,
and its use in transport can support retention of local value from these projects
For recommended actions to encourage the transition to hydrogen for transport, see policy C5
Key challenges to delivering hydrogen for transport:
•Need for high anchor demand:
–Typically reliant on demand from other sectors (power, industry, heat) to build business case
–For transport, need for large fleet commitment to justify refuelling infrastructure (e.g. ~20 trucks or 100 vans) –demand
aggregation important
•Cost of vehicles –private sector unwilling to invest without funding support
•Lack of dedicated funding streams –may change in future
Local strengths and opportunities:
•East Anglia has two potential hydrogen production sites under development:
Bacton Energy hub –mix of blue and green hydrogen
Sizewell –green hydrogen from nuclear power
•Freeport East Hydrogen Hub (supplied by hydrogen from offshore wind and nuclear power at
Sizewell) has strong potential to leverage aggregated demand for transport through co-
location of shipping, high HGV traffic, and rail
•Upcoming projects will explore hydrogen elsewhere in the region, such as the Norfolk
Sustainable Hydrogen Infrastructure for Transport study (SHIFT)
•Hydrogen East are a body bringing together key stakeholders in hydrogen in the East of
England, aiming to raise awareness around local hydrogen opportunities and ultimately
establish East Anglia as a leading hydrogen region
Map of hydrogen projects in East Anglia
Sizewell
Freeport East Hydrogen Hub, Harwich
Freeport East Hydrogen
Hub, Felixstowe
Bacton
Energy hub
20
ID
Policy
A1
Provide guidance
and centralised information sharing of best practice for LAs in deploying charging infrastructure
A2
Decide on the preferred
procurement framework for the region to facilitate the process for LAs –either using the existing
Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Solutions Framework or a locally
-designed solution
A3
Explore options to
support rural charging and EV switch
A4
Facilitate
on-going data sharing between local authorities and DNOs (UKPN in East Anglia) to ensure grid constraints are not
limiting
A5
Facilitate
on-going communication and collaboration with key stakeholders, including private sector and sub-national
transport bodies
A6
Support the establishment of multi
-modal hubs
Actions to encourage transition to alternative fuels: Expanding EV charging infrastructure
1. Note that a consultation ran from Sept to Nov 2021 which included consideration of whether to make provision of charging infrastructure by Local Authorities mandatory –
outcome pending
Charging infrastructure is a key enabler of electric vehicle uptake:
•In order to prepare for the Government ICE phase out, all consumers must perceive that they have access to charging
•As uptake grows, a significant increase in public charging will be required to support those without access to off-street parking and to address perceived
barriers to using EVs for high mileage journeys
•As set out previously, planning for appropriate EV charging deployment must be place-based and take into account all key user groups within each area1
•The key role for CPCA and New Anglia LEP is therefore to coordinate and support LAs in defining strategies for their districts by providing a unified
vision and approach to EV charging deployment as far as possible and putting the region in a strong position to take advantage of funding streams when
they become available
21
ID
Policy
B1
Work with LAs to make EVs an attractive option locally
B2
Focus policy to target uptake in high mileage sectors
such as taxis, private hire vehicles, company cars etc. which
offer the biggest emission saving from a swap to BEV/FCEV
B3
Lead by example
by encouraging all LAs to fully transition their fleets as early as possible and to address grey fleet
emissions
B4
Support local businesses to switch by raising awareness, since many higher mileage user still see range and refuelling
infrastructure as barriers to BEV/FCEV adoption
B5
Work with LAs to
ensure that planning facilitates refuelling infrastructure rollout where appropriate
B6
Support local fleets and projects to facilitate
hydrogen for transport
B7
Support local bus and logistics operators in the switch to AFVs
Actions to encourage transition to alternative fuels: Wider action
A number of wider policies can be adopted to encourage the transition to alternative fuels in East Anglia:
H2
22
ID
Policy
A1
Work with local authorities to
disincentivise private car use
A2
Work with local authorities and to
greatly expand bus and rail capacity and quality of services
A4
Ensure cycling and walking strategies
across the region are compatible and provide good connectivity
A5
Build on Ipswich experience in building
15-minute city concept to explore rollout to other city centres
A6
Support community, Council
-led, and commercial shared vehicle opportunities
A7
Support
freight consolidation and sustainable last-mile delivery by working with local authorities to identify suitable
land and considering funding trials/deployment
A8
Work with key stakeholders to
increase rail freight capacity at bottlenecks along the route from Felixstowe
Actions to reduce demand and deliver modal shift
Shifting to more sustainable travel patterns and modes is essential for delivering carbon reductions:
•Reducing reliance on private transport both delivers direct emissions savings and makes the transport system more efficient through reducing the scale
of vehicle uptake and infrastructure rollout needed
•Sustainable travel is a key priority of local and regional strategies giving strong opportunities to align
