Annex A
Local Landscape
Source: Business Register and Employment Survey, 2020 (published 2021), 2020 SAP boundaries
Local Landscape - Summary
• Norfolk and Suffolk has an ageing population, with 44% of the workforce over 50 years old, in comparison to 38% across
England on average.
• When comparing the area’s employment by sector with both England and Comparator LEPs (see Annex B), the main area
of discrepancy in the region is a notable lack of employment within the “Professional, Scientific & Technical” and
“Information & Communication” sectors (6% and 2% respectively, relative to 9% and 5% nationally,)
• The employment rate in Norfolk and Suffolk has been consistently above the national level since 2005.
• However, between 2004 to 2018 the local GVA has been roughly £3/£4 less per hour worked than the UK trend.
• Furthermore, the median gross weekly wages for full-time workers in Norfolk and Suffolk (both for the workplace and
residents) has been consistently tracked below the national trend since 2014.
• EMSI Job Postings data for Norfolk and Suffolk indicates that the hardest hit industries to vacancies as a result of COVID-
19 were “Accommodation & Food” (48% decrease), “Financial & Insurance” (40% decrease), “Information &
Communication” (40% decrease) and “Arts, Entertainment & Recreation” (-37% decrease).
• Whilst a decrease in the employment share of these sectors was anticipated, particularly within “Accommodation &
Food” and “Arts, Entertainment & Recreation” the government support schemes appear to have hopefully minimised
any long-term impact on the Norfolk & Suffolk economy.
• There were several local interventions focused on getting people back into employment following redundancy, including
Work Well Suffolk and a range of ESIF projects across the region (including the job support programme and the
community grant scheme).
• When comparing Norfolk and Suffolk with the area’s Comparator LEPs most of the local landscape core indicators are of
similar value.
• Two stand out of areas of focus for Norfolk and Suffolk are “median wages weekly wage for full-time workers” and the
region’s ageing population.
• Whilst the gap in GVA per hour work between Norfolk and Suffolk and the Comparator LEPs appears to have been
closed, there is still a clear gap in median wages, both for residents and in the workplace.
Source: Business Register and Employment Survey, 2020 (published 2021), 2020 SAP boundaries
Employment by sector:
• The two largest sectors of employment in Norfolk and Suffolk are the health sector and the retail sector, making up
14% and 11% of the workforce, respectively.
• This is roughly the same as the national average, where they each contribute 13% and 9% respectively.
• New Anglia LEP’s local industrial strategy outlines three strategic opportunities: Clean Energy, Agri-food and ICT &
Digital Creative.
• Agri-food can be roughly mapped to “Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing” plus “Accommodation & Food services”, which
contribute 4% and 8% of the total employment of Norfolk and Suffolk.
• This is a clear strength of Norfolk & Suffolk, with these sectors only contributing 8% combined nationally.
• However, ICT & Digital Creative is more of a cause for concern when mapped against “Information & Communication”,
with the sector making up 2% of the area’s employment, whilst it represents 5% nationally and 3% on average across
the area’s Comparator LEPs.
• The other main area of discrepancy between Norfolk and Suffolk and the national average is the notable lack of
employment within the “Professional, Scientific & Technical” sector (6%), relative to the national average (9%).
• This is also seen when comparing Norfolk and Suffolk with the area’s Comparator LEPs, with the average employment
in the “Professional, Scientific & Technical” sector across the Comparator LEPs being 8%.
• EMSI Job Postings data for Norfolk and Suffolk indicates that the hardest hit industries to vacancies as a result of
COVID-19 were “Accommodation & Food” (48% decrease), “Financial & Insurance” (40% decrease), “Information &
Communication” (40% decrease) and “Arts, Entertainment & Recreation” (-37% decrease).
• Whilst a decrease in the employment share of these sectors was anticipated, particularly within “Accommodation &
Food” and “Arts, Entertainment & Recreation”, the government support schemes appear to have hopefully minimized
any long-term impact on the Norfolk & Suffolk economy.
Employment by occupation:
• The profile of jobs available locally roughly matches the both the national levels and the area’s Comparator LEPs.
• The largest occupations of employment in Norfolk and Suffolk are professional occupations, making up 19% of
the workforce. This is slightly under the England average level (23%) as well as the Comparator LEPs level (20%).
• However, the number of professional occupations within Norfolk and Suffolk will potentially rise in the future
due to the volume of engineers that will be required to meet the area’s clean growth ambitions.
• The volume of Sales and Customer Service occupations remained the same from 2019/20 to 2020/21, reflecting
the positive impact of the government’s relief package for the UK retail and hospitality sectors.
Enterprises by employment size band:
• The vast majority (89%) of Norfolk and Suffolk enterprises employ fewer than 10 people, which roughly
matches both the national and the Comparator LEP average (both 90%).
Source: UK Business Counts, 2021, 2020 SAP boundaries
Source: Annual Population Survey, July 2020 – June 2021, 2020 SAP boundaries
Employment rate and level:
• The employment rate in Norfolk and Suffolk had been steadily rising from 2014 to 2020, increasing from 74%
to 78%, with this improvement in employment also seen nationally.
• Furthermore, the rate in Norfolk and Suffolk has been consistently above the national level since 2005, whilst
roughly matching the employment rate of the area’s Comparator LEPs.
• However, the employment rate has suffered both locally and nationally as a result of the pandemic, falling
from 78% locally in 2019 to 76% in 2021, with this decrease likely to have been significantly greater if not for
the government interventions through the CJRS and the SEISS.
• The proportion of self-employed people in Norfolk and Suffolk has stayed relatively consistent around 16%,
which has also been the case nationally.
Source: ONS Business Demography, 2014 - 2020 (published 2021), 2020 SAP boundaries
Business birth and death rates:
• The Norfolk and Suffolk business birth rate and death rate stayed relatively constant between 2018 and
2020; the birth rate plateaued around 10%, whilst the death rate has fallen from 10% to 9%.
• The local business birth rate has been consistently below the national average; however, this has been
neutralized by the local business death rate also being consistently below the national level.
• In contrast, the business birth and death rates across Norfolk and Suffolk are almost identical to the
values seen across the area’s Comparator LEPs.
• Figures from New Anglia Growth Hub show that there were a record high number of new businesses
established in both Norfolk and Suffolk in 2020.
• Despite the considerable economic challenges posed by the Coronavirus pandemic, 5,105 new
companies were registered in Suffolk, as well as 5,006 in Norfolk, representing an increase of 13% and
5.8% on the previous year, respectively.
• However, the effect of the pandemic and national lockdowns means that this would sadly have been
countered by existing businesses folding, and employees being made redundant.
Source: Annual Population Survey, 2005 - 2021, 2020 SAP boundaries
Nominal GVA per hour worked:
• Productivity in Norfolk and Suffolk has risen consistently between 2004 to 2019, increasing from £22.1
per hour worked to £31.4.
• However, throughout this timeframe the local GVA has been roughly £3/£4 less per hour worked than
the UK trend.
• Norfolk and Suffolk has also consistently tracked below the average GVA per hour of the area’s
Comparator LEPs. However, the £2.2 difference in 2004 was steadily reduced to £0.1 by 2018.
• This links to the median gross weekly wage which has also consistently tracked below the national trend.
• According to data from EMSI, the largest contributors to GVA in Norfolk and Suffolk are wholesale &
retail (12%), manufacturing (11%) and health & social work (10%).
Source: ONS Subregional Productivity, 2004 - 2019 (published 2021), 2018 LEP/MCA boundaries
Median gross weekly wage for full-time
workers:
• The median gross weekly wages for
full-time workers in Norfolk and Suffolk
(both for the workplace and residents)
fell between 2019 and 2020, however,
the latest data for 2021 shows a
healthy both locally and nationally.
• Furthermore, both workplace and
residents’ wages have consistently
tracked below both the national trend,
as well as Comparator LEP average.
• This is primarily caused by the relatively
low wages in Norfolk, most notably in
Breckland, Great Yarmouth, North
Norfolk and Norwich.
• The median gross weekly wages for
residents have exceeded those in the
workplace since 2014.
• This suggests that there are residents
with weekly wage above the local
average who work outside of Norfolk
and Suffolk.
Source: Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, 2019 - 2021, 2020 LEP
boundaries
Claimant Count and Alternative Claimant Count:
• Between January 2013 and January 2016, both the claimant count and the alternative claimant in Norfolk and
Suffolk fell at a constant rate. Up until March 2020, the alternative claimant count remained at roughly 25,000.
• This trend in Norfolk and Suffolk almost identically mirrors both the national and Comparator LEP trend.
• Since the onset of COVID-19, the number of claims roughly doubled, both locally and nationally.
• In response to this, there were numerous local interventions focused on getting people back into employment
following redundancy, including Work Well Suffolk and a range of ESIF projects, and as a result there was a
sizeable drop on the volume of claimants from February 2021 up until the latest data (August 2021).
Source: ONS claimant count & DWP Stat Xplore, January 2013 – August 2021, 2020 SAP boundaries
Population by age group:
• Norfolk and Suffolk has an ageing population, with 44% of the population over 50 years old, in
comparison with the England population as a whole where 38% is over 50, or with the area’s
Comparator LEPs where 42% of the population is over 50.
• As a result, the area will likely require growth in Health and Social Work occupations to cater for this
ageing population.
• Furthermore, the proportion of the workforce aged 35-49 has decreased from 26% to 17% since 2005.
Source: ONS Mid-Year Population Estimates, 2020, 2021 SAP boundaries
Skills Supply
Skills Supply – Summary
• For HE qualifiers and FE achievements in disciplines linked to Norfolk and Suffolk’s strategic opportunities, the
area is currently below the England average in Engineering and Computer Science-related subjects.
• For apprenticeships, the area is on par with the England average, with 23% of apprenticeship achievements being
made in Norfolk and Suffolk (24% nationally) across subjects related to the area’s strategic opportunities.
• Norfolk and Suffolk is currently matching the England average in both FE and apprenticeship achievements within
Agriculture, Horticulture & Animal Care.
• However, if Norfolk and Suffolk seek to establish thriving Agri-food, Clean Energy and ICT & Digital Creative
sectors, the area should aim not to just meet the England average in these subject areas but to exceed it.
• Local intelligence highlights that colleges are seeing a different profile from progressing Year 11 students due to
the teacher assessment grades – they believe that the increase in GCSE grades has caused a higher level than
normal to stay at school 6
th
Forms or progress to higher level courses at colleges.
• The area’s Economic Recovery Group has committed to three key measures: the “Youth Pledge”, “Transforming
Skills” and “Mental Health and Wellbeing”.
• The “Youth Pledge” is the guarantee that every young person in Norfolk and Suffolk will have the support they
need to get into high quality education, employment, training or an apprenticeship.
• “Transforming Skills” is the commitment that every individual has access to opportunities to upskill and reskill,
adapting the skills provision so that it meets the changing needs of businesses and the aspirations of individuals.
• “Mental Health and Wellbeing” is a programme that provides Norfolk & Suffolk employers and employees with
the mental health support they need.
Income, Employment and Education
deprivation:
• The most notable area of deprivation in
Norfolk and Suffolk is in “Education, Skills
and training”, where 12% of the
neighbourhoods are in the 10% most
deprived nationally.
• This is in comparison with the area’s
Comparator LEPs where just 6% of
neighbourhoods on average are in the
10% most deprived nationally.
• This is primarily due to the high levels of
education, skills and training deprivation
of neighbourhoods in Norwich (36%),
Great Yarmouth (26%) and Ipswich (24%).
• Local intelligence highlighted rising UC
claimants and redundancies post-COVID,
and therefore these values are likely to
have increased further.
Source: Index of Multiple Deprivation, MHCLG, 2019, 2017 LEP boundaries
Qualification levels:
• Norfolk and Suffolk has
above average proportions
of the working population
with NVQ Level 1, 2 & 3
qualifications.
• However, this could in large
part be due to the low
proportion of the workforce
with Level 4+ qualifications.
• The local authority where
this is most pertinent is in
Great Yarmouth, where only
18% of the working
population hold an NVQ
Level 4+ qualification.
• Despite this, over the last
year the proportion of the
workforce with Level 4+
qualifications has increased,
rising to 35% from 32% in
2019, with similar trends
also experienced nationally.
Source: Annual Population Survey, January 2020 – December 2020, 2020 SAP
boundaries
Source: Further Education & Skills data, DfE, (published 2021), 2020 SAP boundaries
Apprenticeship Achievements:
• Apprenticeship achievements are concentrated mainly in “Business, Administration and Law” (31%), “Health, Public
Services and Care” (27%), and “Engineering and Manufacturing Technologies” (13%)
• This almost exactly mirrors the national picture, however the gap of 15% nationally relative to 13% locally in
“Engineering and Manufacturing Technologies” should be closed if the area is to be competitive in their Clean Energy
strategic opportunity.
• Out of the 174 levy share opportunities in Norfolk and Suffolk as of early 2021, the most common were Business and
Administration (60, 35%), Health, Public Services and Care (42, 24%) and Education and Childcare (29, 17%).
• New Anglia LEP is working with Norfolk and Waveney CCG to support the funding of recruiting Pharmacy Technicians
through the levy share, whilst also supporting GPs to recruit and upskill current staff to complete the Associate Nurse
Apprenticeship.
FE Education and Training Achievements:
• Considering the forecasted growth in demand within Health & Social Work as a result of the region’s ageing
population, it is particularly encouraging to see that the percentage of achievements in Health, Public Services &
Care increased from 19% to 23% from 19/20 to 20/21 (exceeding the percentage nationally of 18%).
• Furthermore, Retail and Commercial Enterprise is another strength of the region, with 15% of achievements
locally compared with 6% nationally.
• The number of FE achievements in Norfolk and Suffolk had been following a worrying trend - falling from 17,470
in 2017/18 to 12,580 in 2019/20 – however, there was an uptick in 2020/21 to 14,010.
• This trend in FE achievements was also experienced nationally.
• Local intelligence highlights that despite the disrupted delivery due to COVID-19, learners remained engaged.
Source: Apprenticeships data, DfE, (published 2021), 2020 SAP boundaries
HE Qualifiers:
• The largest volume of qualifiers both
locally and nationally are in “Business and
management”, “Subjects allied to
medicine” and “Social Sciences”, with the
latter two having a notably larger
proportion locally relative to nationally.
• Furthermore, Norfolk and Suffolk is also
currently just above the England average
for HE qualifiers in “Medicine and
dentistry”.
• The area should be aiming to see a high
proportion of graduates specialising in
medicine related subjects due to the
future demands of the ageing population.
• Norfolk and Suffolk tracks below the
England average for HE qualifiers in
“Physical sciences”, “Mathematical
sciences”, “Computer sciences” and most
notably “Engineering and Technology”
(1% compared with 6%).
• If Norfolk and Suffolk seek to establish
thriving Clean Energy and ICT & Digital
Creative sectors, the area should aim to
exceed the England average.
• However, the low numbers within
Engineering should hopefully be boosted
by the opening of UEA’s Productivity East.
• In “Agriculture, food and related
subjects”, the area is matching the
average in HE qualifiers.
• However, a larger proportion of
achievements in these subjects is needed
to fulfil the future opportunities the
sector presents.
KS4 destinations:
• The most common destination of KS4
students both locally and nationally is
into sustained education (87% for both).
• Local intelligence in Norfolk shows that
the further education progression rate in
2020 into sixth form colleges was very
similar to that of FE Colleges.
• Norfolk County Council states that all
young people are expected to continue
in education or training until at least 18.
Source: HESA, 2019/2020 qualifiers (published 2021), 2020 SAP
boundaries)
Source: KS4 destination measures, DfE, 2019/20 (published 2021),
2020 SAP boundaries
KS5 destinations:
• Norfolk and Suffolk had 87% of
Level 3 students progress to a
sustained destination, which is
almost equal to the England
average of 88%.
• However, the percentage of
those Level 3 students who had a
sustained education destination
was 49% locally, in comparison
with 58% across England.
• In addition, the percentage of
students who left Level 2 to stay
in education was 20% locally, in
comparison with 25% across
England.
• The area’s commitment to
improving progression in
education is shown in Norfolk’s
performance in Gatsby
Benchmark 7 (encounters with
FE & HE) which has increased
from 6.67% fully achieved in
2017/18 to 30.00% in 2019/20.
• However, Norfolk and Suffolk is
above the England average for
employment destinations.
• This is the case across all Level 3,
Level 2 and all other
qualifications within further
education.
Source: 16-18 Destination Measures, DfE, 2019/20 (published 2021), 2020 SAP boundaries
FE and skills destinations:
• The most common destination in Norfolk and Suffolk of all FE and skills learners is sustained employment,
with a destination rate of 60%
• This is the similar nationally, with the sustained employment destination rate being 61%.
• Sustained employment destinations for Level 1 and Level 2 ESOL students is a particular strength of the area,
with 64% of Level 1 and 71% of Level 2 ESOL students having sustained employments destinations, in
comparison with 43% and 56% nationally.
• A clear weak point for the area is sustained learning destinations, with it accounting for 32% of Level 1
students and 27% of Level 2 students, in comparison with 40% and 36% nationally.
• Local intelligence shows that of the students in Norfolk who left post-16 education in 2016/17 with a
qualification at level 3 or below, around a third (30%) experience difficult transitions into work.
• These more difficult transitions are associated with lower employment and earnings outcomes in the future.
Source: FE outcome based success measures, 2018/19 destinations, DfE, (published 2020), 2018 LEP boundaries
Source: HESA, 2018/19 graduates (published 2021), 2020 SAP boundaries
Apprenticeship destinations:
• The most common destination for apprenticeships of all levels in Norfolk and Suffolk is sustained employment,
accounting for 92% of the destinations.
• This is slightly above the national level of 91%.
• As expected, due to the high volume of achievements in these subject areas, the most common destinations for
apprentices in Norfolk and Suffolk from 2013/14 to 2016/17 were health and social care as well as administration.
Source: FE outcome based success measures, 2018/19 destinations, DfE, (published 2020), 2018 LEP boundaries
HE graduate destinations:
• In general, destinations in Norfolk and Suffolk match the national levels very closely.
• The most common destination of HE graduates in Norfolk and Suffolk is into full-time employment,
accounting for 55% of graduates, which is almost exactly equal to the national figures (56%).
• 72% of these graduates in full-time employment were from the University of East Anglia (UEA), as well as
18% from the University of Suffolk.
• The median salary (regionally adjusted) one year after graduation was £23,000 for UEA graduates and
£21,200 for the University of Suffolk.
• This places UEA in the top 30% of UK universities, and the University of Suffolk at the 50
th
percentile
• Five years after graduation, this rises to £29,900 (70
th
percentile) and £25,200 (39% percentile),
respectively, suggesting UEA has sustained above average graduate outcomes.
Graduate retention:
• 60% of graduates from HEIs in Norfolk and Suffolk still reside in the East of England five years after
graduation, however, a large proportion of these graduates could be outside of the LEP area in
Cambridgeshire, Hertfordshire or Essex.
• This data varies by institution – the University of Suffolk has high graduate retention, with 83% of graduates
residing in the East of England five years after graduation, compared with 51% and 62% at the University of
East Anglia (UEA) and the Norwich University of the Arts (NUA) respectively.
• Other data suggests percentage of graduates residing in Norfolk and Suffolk would be higher if there were
more job opportunities requiring higher skill levels and offering higher salaries.
Source: Graduate Outcomes in 2018/19, DfE, (published 2021), 2020 SAP boundaries
Employer provided training:
• 64% of employers either off-job or on-job training, with just over half of these employers (33%) providing
both.
• This is slightly above the national average of 61% (with 31% providing both off-job and on-job training).
• This figure has the potential to increase over the upcoming years due to the increased levels of funding
and support for training in Norfolk and Suffolk, particularly around digital skills.
• Lifetime Skills Guarantee – from April 2021, any adult aged 24 and over who wants to achieve their first full
level 3 qualification will be able to access almost 400 fully-funded courses.
• Courses will be available in a variety of lengths to support adults to get the skills they need to boost their
careers.
• £1m of funding has also been secured in Norfolk and Suffolk through the Supply Chain Skills Development
Fund.
• This is targeted upskilling to increase local supply chain ‘share’ of opportunities.
• Furthermore, Norfolk and Suffolk is building on the investments already made in digital skills
infrastructure, and is working with their higher and further education providers to provide a range of
opportunities that enable all residents to upskill throughout their lives.
• This includes developing a digital skills programme and working with industries to scale-up existing
initiatives.
• Routes to Work and Norfolk Community College, run by East Coast College, help unemployed adults find
work or build their skills and confidence to help them get work in the future.
• SPAR – a £1.25m proposal has been developed for a ‘Skills, Progression, Adaptability and Resilience
Programme’ that will provide employees across Norfolk and Suffolk with additional opportunities to
upskill, especially in areas that enhance the adaptability and resilience of both the businesses they work
for and for themselves as individuals.
• According to intelligence from CBI in 2019, the biggest barrier to training for businesses nationally is lack of
funds and the cost, with 59% of respondents pointing to a problem.
• Other factors include difficulties in sparing time for employees to train (52%), difficulty in finding the right
provider (32%) and a lack of subject-specific training (30%)
Source: Employer Skills Survey, 2019 (published 2020), 2019 LEP boundaries
Skills Demand
Skills Demand – Summary
• Due to Norfolk and Suffolk’s ageing population illustrated above, growth in employment in the health and
social work sector should help the region manage the increase in demand for their skills and expertise.
• Therefore, it is encouraging to see that not only were the three occupations with the highest forecast
employment growth all related to healthcare, but health and social work as a whole was also the second
highest sector in forecast employment growth.
• The projections are unfortunately not favourable on the area’s strategic opportunities, with information
technology experiencing nominal growth and engineering and agriculture both being forecasted to shrink in
total numbers employed.
• Agriculture is the lowest ranked sector in percentage terms, with an estimated forecasted decrease of -1.6%
per annum.
• Local intelligence suggests that a wide range of sectors (most notably the visitor economy and the self-
employed) are being impacted by COVID-19 and the calibre of individuals registering with Job Centres.
• A Job Finding Support service was rolled out in January 2021 offering short, sharp interventions to turn
people around quickly, and Youth Hubs are also opening up in the area.
• Data from the Employer Skills Survey 2019 shows that a unique factor in Norfolk and Suffolk behind “hard-to-
fill” vacancies was due to “remote location/poor public transport”.
• However, this is contradictory to the latest commute time data from the Labor Force Survey 2016, which
shows that 12 out of the 14 districts in Norfolk and Suffolk have a commute time below the UK average.
Online vacancies:
• Notable dips in job postings can be seen after March 2020 across all industries other than Health and Social
Work (8% increase), which has understandably seen demand rise due to COVID-19.
• The most heavily impacted industries in Norfolk & Suffolk were “Accommodation & Food” (48% decrease),
“Financial & Insurance” (40% decrease), “Information & Communication” (40% decrease) and “Arts,
Entertainment & Recreation” (-37% derease).
• The fluctuations in job postings during 2020 and 2021 are strongly correlated to the government-imposed
restrictions, with the tightening of restrictions resulting in a dip in vacancies, and the easing of restrictions
causing a sharp rise.
• Soon after the full easing of legal restrictions in the summer of 2021, there was a boom in vacancies across
Norfolk & Suffolk, and these volumes have continued to rise month by month.
• Currently, all major sectors are exceeding 2017-19 numbers for vacancies considerably, with the total
number of vacancies more than double the values typically experienced pre-pandemic.
• However, this growth could be in large part due to a backlog of vacancies during lockdown which are
subsequently being posted all at once.
• The strong recovery in job postings within “Accommodation & Food” and “Arts, Entertainment &
Recreation” should be highlighted, as well as the recent recovery within “Information & Communication”.
• However, “Financial & Insurance” has experienced a relatively slow recovery and remain as one of the worst
hit industries.
• This points towards a potential longer-term COVID-19 impact (in relation to job postings) within the sector.
Please note these forecasts were produced prior to COVID-19:
Please note these forecasts were produced prior to COVID-19:
Sectors with highest forecast growth (2017-
2027)
Sectors with lowest forecast growth (2017-
2027)
1. Water and sewerage
1. Agriculture
2. Health and social work
2. Rest of manufacturing
3. Real estate
3. Food drink and tobacco
4. Arts and entertainment
4. Engineering
5. Professional services
5. Media
Sectors with highest forecast growth (2017-
2027)
Sectors with lowest forecast growth (2017-
2027)
1. Caring personal service occupations
1. Secretarial and related occupations
2. Health and social care associate
professionals
2. Process, plant and machine
operatives
3. Health professionals
3. Skilled metal, electrical and electronic
trades
4. Teaching and educational
professionals
4. Textiles, printing and other skilled
trades
5. Customer service occupations
5. Administrative occupations
Sector growth forecasts:
• Health and social work has the second highest percentage forecast employment in Norfolk and Suffolk
from 2017-2027, with the largest forecasted employment growth being in water and sewerage.
• It is encouraging to see projections from Working Futures suggest that health and social work will have
high employment growth, due to Norfolk and Suffolk’s ageing population, and growth in employment
within these areas should help the region manage the increase in demand for their skills and expertise.
• The projections are unfortunately not favourable on the area’s strategic opportunities, with information
technology experiencing nominal growth, and engineering and agriculture both being forecasted to shrink
in total numbers employed.
• This is not consistent with local intelligence which points towards these sectors being opportunities for
growth in the area.
• Agriculture is the lowest ranked sector in percentage terms, with an estimated forecasted decrease of -
1.6% per annum.
• Local intelligence suggests that a wide range of sectors (most notably the visitor economy and the self-
employed) had been impacted by COVID-19.
Source: Working Futures, 2017-2027 (published 2020), 2017 LEP boundaries
Source: Working Futures, 2017-2027 (published 2020), 2017 LEP boundaries
Skills that need developing:
• The skills that will need developing in the workforce which are most frequently listed by local employers are “knowledge of
products and services offered by your organisation and organisations like yours” (48%), “adapting to new equipment or
materials” (47%) and “specialist skills or knowledge needed to perform the role” (46%).
• This is similar to trends seen nationally, with the same three skills also being the most frequently listed across employers in
England.
Occupation growth forecasts:
• It is encouraging to see projections from Working Futures predict that the three occupations with the
highest percentage forecast employment growth in Norfolk and Suffolk are caring personal service
occupations, health, social care associate professionals and health professionals.
• Due to Norfolk and Suffolk’s ageing population, growth in employment within these occupations
should help the region manage the increase in demand for their skills and expertise.
• As mentioned above, there was a boom in job postings in 2021, with nearly all occupations
experiencing increase in job postings.
• Data from EMSI shows that the five occupations with the largest increase in job postings over the last
year were “Sales Accounts/Business Development Managers”, “Van Drivers”, “Kitchen & Catering
Assistants”, “Sales & Retail Assistants” and “Chefs”.
• This further supports the evidence of a strong recovery in Retail and Accommodation & Food post-
COVID.
Source: Employer Skills Survey, 2019 (published 2020), 2019 LEP boundaries
Mapping Skills Supply and Demand
Skills Supply and Demand - Summary
• Data from the Employer Skills Survey 2019 implies that the local alignment of supply and demand is roughly
equal to the average England economy.
• Hard-to-fill vacancies are more due to contextual factors rather than the quality or quantity of applicants.
• An example of a mentioned contextual factor which is unique to Norfolk and Suffolk is the remote location of
businesses and poor public transport.
• However, this is contradictory to the latest commute time data from the Labour Force Survey 2016, which
shows that 12 out of the 14 districts in Norfolk and Suffolk have a commute time below the UK average.
• This either suggests that transport connectivity in Norfolk and Suffolk is good, or that people are more easily
able to live locally to work (which is unlikely considering the high volume of rural areas across both counties).
• Either way, this is perhaps pointing towards a perceived “remote location/poor public transport” issue rather
than one that is an actual standout concern.
• As shown above, Norfolk and Suffolk has an above average employment rate, despite having below average
numbers gaining higher level qualifications.
• A potential cause for this is due to the Norfolk and Suffolk economy being heavily skewed towards lower-
skilled employment.
• The data below supports this assumption, showing that a lower proportion of vacancies in Norfolk and Suffolk
cited as being due to skills-shortages in comparison with the England average.
• This information is likely to be strongly correlated to the GVA and median wage data shown above, with
nominal GVA per hour worked in Norfolk and Suffolk consistently tracking below the UK average since 2004,
and median gross weekly wages for full-time workers in the area (for both residents and the workplace)
tracking below the England average since 2014.
• For the region to see a shift towards an economy with a GVA per hour worked and median gross wages closer
to the national average, there may therefore need to be a shift in the employment composition towards having
a larger proportion of higher-skilled employment.
Source: Employer Skills Survey, 2019 (published 2020), 2019 LEP boundaries
Proficiency of workforce:
• The proportion of staff in Norfolk and Suffolk who employers reported as being “not fully proficient” is
4.9%, which is similar to the England average of 4.6%.
• The proportion of establishments in Norfolk and Suffolk who employers reported as having “under-
utilised staff” is 33%, which is slightly below the England average of 34%.
• This suggests that the local alignment of supply and demand is roughly equal to the average England
economy.
• New Anglia LEP’s Cross Cutting Skills Report highlights gaps in skills provision within the Digital Tech
sector, leading to a growing demand for higher level qualifications.
• In the long run, the future supply of employees in the Energy sector has been highlighted as a key area of
concern, with there being a need for a better supply of local graduate level mechanical and electric
engineering skills.
Hard-to-fill and skills shortage vacancies:
• Norfolk and Suffolk has a higher percentage of vacancies which are hard-to-fill relative to the England
average, with 43% in comparison with 37%.
• However, a lower percentage of vacancies are cited as being due to skills shortages, with 22% of
vacancies in Norfolk and Suffolk being due to skills shortages, relative to 25% on average in England.
• This further supports the assumption that Norfolk and Suffolk has an economy which comprises of a high
number of lower-skilled jobs due to a relatively low number of businesses considering skills shortages as a
primary issue.
• Hard-to-fill vacancies are more due to contextual factors rather than the quality or quantity of applicants.
• A notable cause for hard-to-fill vacancies which is unique to Norfolk and Suffolk is the remote location of
businesses and poor public transport.
Source: Employer Skills Survey, 2019 (published 2020), 2019 LEP boundaries
Annex B
Local Landscape
Clean Growth - indicative breakdown of projected skills requirements, incorporating the likely demand
drivers will come from Sizewell.
As has been mentioned elsewhere in this document ‘Clean Growth’ is the golden thread that runs
through our ambitions for Norfolk and Suffolk’s Local Industrial Strategy, leading to sustainable recovery
and growth. This is because clean growth offers the best chance for longer-term, inclusive, and
sustained growth, and which also aligns with our existing Norfolk and Suffolk Economic Strategy, which
runs to 2036.
We are not just assessing this opportunity through the lens of clean energy or clean tech so much as the
whole economy, as we foresee virtually every aspect of the local economy needing to become greener
and reducing carbon and greenhouse emissions.
We recognize this is a sizeable undertaking, and we have not yet assessed the scale and nature of the
potential challenges opportunities this will present, and the associated skills requirements with
achieving it.
However, we are getting a clearer understanding of the specific skills demands that our clean growth
ambitions will require. Along with assessments that relate to the more obvious clean growth sectors –
such as clean energy – we are considering the significance of digital skills and how these will support a
drive towards clean growth across all sectors.
From our Brexit Implications Report: January 2020 - Geographic & Sector Analysis:
National insurance registrations provide an indication of the number of non-UK individuals entering the
UK with the intention to work. While the level of international migration into Ipswich and Norwich is
high (12,964 and 10822, respectively), other local authorities have also experienced a high influx of
international workers.
Cities accommodate higher-skilled jobs which often offer higher remuneration. Economic migrants from
outside the EU face more restrictions to entering the UK than EU migrants, and so many will only do so
for jobs with higher pay. This is one explanation for the observed difference.
Most international migrants seeking employment outside of Norfolk and Suffolk’s two cities are from
within the EU. In North Norfolk, Breckland, King’s Lynn and West Norfolk, and Great Yarmouth, 93%,
92%, 90% and 89% of international migrants have been from countries within the EU. These authorities
contain a high proportion of jobs in the manufacturing, agriculture and energy sectors – often jobs that
are taken by EU migrants. This reflects the level of demand in Norfolk and Suffolk for EU migrant
workers in areas outside of the two main cities.
Below is a chart displaying the combined EU and Non-EU overseas National Insurance (NI) registrations,
over the past 5 years, broken down by local authority area.
Not unsurprisingly, Norwich and Ipswich have recorded the highest volumes of registrations over the
past 5 years. This chart also reveals the comparative proportion of overseas NI registrations of
individuals coming from EU countries, and non-EU countries.
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
% of EU NI Registrations
The above chart shows that while the comparative volume of overseas NI registrations in North Norfolk
and Breckland are relatively small, a huge proportion, (more than 90%) are for individuals from EU
countries. In contrast, Norwich only recorded just over 60% of its overseas NI registrations coming from
EU countries.
This analysis helps us to understand that certain local economies may be more reliant than others in
terms of being able to access flexible labour pools from the EU. Broadly speaking, the data indicates
that those local authority economies with a large contingent of employment in leisure & tourism,
agriculture & food processing, and manufacturing in general may be more exposed to the risks of
increased bureaucracy and costs associated with accessing staff from the EU, once the UK has left the
EU.
It is worth noting that 7 of the 12 local authorities in Norfolk & Suffolk have recorded over 80% of
overseas NI registrations as coming from EU countries. Therefore, the impact of the end of freedom of
movement on the labour market in the area is likely to be widespread, both on terms of geography and
in terms of sectors.
In our Brexit Implications report we cited some sector-based analysis around manufacturing, agriculture,
energy and healthcare. However, at the time, much of the quantitative analysis was only at a national,
rather than local level. Therefore, we are in the process of commissioning additional work to better
understand the local scale of EU nationals in these respective sectors.
We are aware from local intelligence that certain niche sectors, (especially around activities such as fruit
and food picking and food processing), may be reliant on as much as 70-80% of their workforce coming
from various combinations of EU countries.
These groups are also assessing settled status data across their respective workforces, and they are
engaged with migrant worker communities to ensure the key messages about settled status are
reaching the right contacts and groups.
In addition, we are in the process of commissioning some external consultancy which will examine the
proportion of the workforce in each of our key sectors which rely on permanent, flexible, and seasonal
labour from EU countries.
Skills Demand
Working Futures Employment Projections:
Sectors by absolute forecast employment growth in Norfolk and Suffolk (colour-coded by the top 5
highest (green) and lowest (red) sectors by percentage forecast employment growth), Source: Working
Futures, 2017-2027, 2017 SAP boundaries.
Sectors by percentage forecast employment growth per annum (colour coded by the top 5 highest
(green) and lowest (red) sectors by percentage forecast employment growth), Source: Working Futures:
2017-2027, 2017 SAP boundaries.
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
Sectors by absolute forecast employment growth (2017-2027) - Norfolk and
Suffolk
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
Sectors by percentage forecast employment growth per annum (2017-2027)
Methodology:
The forecasts for Working Futures 2017-2027 were prepared in late 2019 and early 2020 using the latest
version of the Cambridge Econometrics Multi-Sectoral Dynamic Model (MDM-E3 Revision 13406 which
is based on SIC2007) and are based on a view of the likely medium-term evolution of the economy at
that time. Therefore, these projections will not have included the impact of COVID-19 on future
employment.
To create the sector forecasts, the historical regional total employment trends (in proportions of the
detailed industries in the corresponding MDM-E3 industries) were extrapolated over the forecast period
and applied to the model forecast to create initial estimates. The occupational employment projections
are generated by linking the industry employment results from MDM-E3 to the IER’s occupational
models, which produce projections of occupational employment shares based on extrapolative
methods. The historical occupational by industry employment share (SIC-SOC) matrices are used to
develop projections of occupational employment share in all future years
Mapping Supply & Demand
Below is list of reports (which will expand over time) that we are using to build the foundations of our
evidence base:
• New Anglia Emerging Technology Skills Plan 2019 https://newanglia.co.uk/sector-skills-plans/
• Clean Energy Skills Plan 2019 https://newanglia.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/New-
Anglia-Clean-Energy-Skills-Plan_FINAL-March-2019.pdf
• Suffolk Climate Emergency Plan – Technical Report
http://www.greensuffolk.org/assets/Greenest-County/SCCP/SCCP/Misc/2020-06-01-REE-
SCEP-Technical-Report-FINAL.pdf
Trade and Cooperation Deal: UK & EU - Workforce implications:
At this stage it is extremely challenging to understand how the EU trade agreement and the effect of
ongoing Covid restrictions will combine to further exacerbate the challenges around accessing labour
from EU counties, and how, or if businesses will be able to adapt to the new points-based system for
sponsoring overseas applicants.
Aside from the direct impact and effects of new agreements on the immediate and existing workforce,
we are also attempting to understand how the new agreement may affect research partnerships and
potentially influence students' movements and applications between the UK and EU countries.
Location Quotient by Education level:
Norfolk and Suffolk Location Quotient by Education level, Source: EMSI, 2020
1.18
1.01 1.01
0.97
0.94
0.90
1.27
1.06
1.01
1.00
0.85
0.86
Level 1 NVQ; GCSE
at grades D-G
Level 2 NVQ; GCSE
at grades A*-C
Level 3 NVQ; A
Levels
Level 4 NVQ;
Intermediate,
DipHE, DipFE
Honours,
Bachelor's degree
Level 5 NVQ;
Masters
Location Quotient by Education Level - Norfolk and Suffolk
Norfolk & Suffolk Location Quotient (Comparator LEPs) Norfolk & Suffolk Location Quotient (England)
This hypothesis that the Norfolk and Suffolk economy is heavily skewed towards lower-skilled
employment is confirmed when looking at the Norfolk and Suffolk location quotient by Education level.
This data shows that both in comparison to the England average, as well as New Anglia LEP’s comparator
LEPs (see below), a higher percentage of jobs in Norfolk and Suffolk require an education level of “Level
1 NVQ; GCSE at grades D-G”, “Level 2 NVQ; GCSE at grades A* to C” and “Level 3 NVQ; A levels”, whilst a
lower percentage of jobs require “Level 4 NVQ; Intermediate, DipHE, DipFE”, “Honours; Bachelor’s
Degree” and “Level 5 NVQ; Masters”.
The location quotient was calculated using occupation data from EMSI. EMSI assigned education levels
to each 4-digit SOC code using the Occupation Information Network (O*NET) Content Model. A location
quotient (LQ) is a way of quantifying how concentrated a particular industry, cluster, occupation, or
demographic group is in a region as compared to the nation. It can reveal what makes a particular
region “unique” in comparison to the national average. For example, 9.1% of jobs in Norfolk and Suffolk
require an education level of “Level 1 NVQ; GCSE at grades D-G” relative to 7.3% across England. The
location quotient is therefore 9.1%/7.3% = 1.25.
New Anglia LEP’s Comparator LEPs:
• Hertfordshire
• Coast to Capital
• Greater Lincolnshire
• York, North Yorkshire and East Riding
• Heart of the South West
