New Anglia Transport Board

Agile to Change

Agenda

1.00pm - 3.00pm, Tuesday 25th February 2020

Gallery Two, Ipswich Town Hall, Ipswich

1.00

Welcome and introductions

Chair

Connections Café reflections

1.05

Minutes and matters arising and confidential papers

Chair

1.10

Innovation in transport

Lisa Perkins,

Using technology to shape future transport

1.30

Transport and clean growth

Ellen Goodwin

1.45

Transport East update - verbal

Graeme Mateer

2.00

Ely update

Riz Hanid,

Network Rail

2.20

Making the Integrated Transport Strategy Happen

ALL

MEMBER ROUNDTABLE - verbal

 Road: Roads Investment Strategy and Transforming Cities Fund

 Rail: Haughley, Trowse and GEML

 Others

2.35

Norfolk and Suffolk Investment Plan - verbal

Ellen Goodwin

2.45

Freeports Consultation

All

2.50

10.

Terms of reference review

Chair

2.55

11.

Any other business

All

 Forward Plan - for discussion

 Date of next meeting - 9.30, 2 June, Norfolk County Council

Officer Contact

If you have any questions about matters contained on this agenda, please get in touch with:

Ellen Goodwin

07384 258662

[email protected]

New Anglia Transport Board

Connecting the East, Accessing the World

Meeting Note

9.30am - 11.30am, Tuesday 19^th November 2019

Colman Room, County Hall, Norwich, NR1 2UA

Board attendance:

Paul Ager

Associated British Ports

Karen Chapman

Suffolk Growth Programme Board

Helen Corina

Norfolk County Council

David Cumming

Norfolk County Council

Paul Davey

Hutchison Ports

Jonathan Denby

Greater Anglia

Nova Fairbank

Norfolk Chamber of Commerce

Doug Field

New Anglia LEP

Ellen Goodwin

New Anglia LEP

Paul Horne

Suffolk County Council

Graeme Mateer

Suffolk County Council

Richard Perkins

Suffolk Chamber of Commerce

Jonathan Rudd

New Anglia LEP

Cllr Barry Stone

Norfolk County Council

Steve Thulborn

Highways England

Andy Walker

Suffolk Chamber of Commerce

Apologies:

Simon Amor

Highways England

Philip Broadbent-Yale

Sustrans

Jamie Burles

Greater Anglia

Jonathan Cage

Norfolk Chamber of Commerce

Andrew Harston

Associated British Ports

Martin Fellowes

Highways England

Paul Martin

First Buses

Andrew Mower

Federation of Small Businesses

Cllr Graham Plant

Great Yarmouth Borough Council

Cllr Andrew Reid

Suffolk County Council

Sue Roper

Suffolk County Council

Rajinder Sharma

Connected Places Catapult

Chris Soule

CLA

Minutes and matters arising

The previous minutes were accepted as a true record.

The importance of port connectivity

PD presented Hutchison Port’s view on the importance of port connectivity.

Key points raised:



The Port of Felixstowe is Britain’s largest container port with more than 40% of all containers coming in and out of

Britain passing through the port.



The port handles 4million TEUs a year, twice that of any other port. 70% of containers coming through

Felixstowe are delivered to the ‘golden triangle’ including the midlands and the north.



2.6million TEUs are transported by road, 1million by rail and 0.5million by sea. Rail modal share has increased

significantly since 2004 with pent up demand for rail being constrained by infrastructure. Rail emissions

compared to road are 76% lower.



The port is well located with respect to the world’s shipping lanes and has a good offer in terms of national

strategic connectivity.

KC asked the group whether they thought more significant private sector investment in infrastructure was likely in the

future.

Maritime cluster update

EG updated the Board on the initial discussions regarding establishing a Norfolk and Suffolk Maritime Cluster.

PD noted confusion between Maritime Clusters and Port Economic Partnerships.

ACTION - Ellen to contact DfT to establish similarities and differences.

PD also noted that short sea economics are challenging compared to both road and rail.

Norwich Airport update

Doug Field presented a short update from Norwich Airport on behalf of Richard Pace.

NF commented that it was challenging to garner business buy-in to new routes before they were introduced.

BREXIT update



The LEP submits a weekly report to government on a range of factors. Information is obtained through a number

of sources.



The LEP and Growth Hub advisers have signposted businesses to government’s dedicated webpage

https://www.gov.uk/brexit and encouraged businesses to enhance their overall resilience.



The LEP is looking to ensure that where EU funding is not yet allocated then local projects come forward to

maximise take up for the region and benefit from any opportunities this creates.



The LEP is also engaged in the dialogue with government on the development of the Shared Prosperity Fund - a

“successor fund” for when the UK leaves the EU.



The LEP is also looking, with government, at how to adapt existing programmes of support, both nationally and

locally, to make interventions that help deal with economic shocks or a possible “no deal”.



The Growth Hub has received funding from BEIS to the end of March 2020 for additional staffing resource to

support business preparations on Brexit, with two advisers holding county-wide roles.



The LEP Executive has appointed Metro Dynamics to update the report published in 2017 on the potential

impacts of Brexit for Norfolk and Suffolk. This piece of work will be completed in early January 2020.

Questions for the group:



Are there any businesses that have pulled together a Brexit plan / business resilience plan?



Have businesses assessed the impacts of Brexit? If so, opportunities or negative impacts?



As a sector, what are the key opportunities or main challenges arising from Brexit?



Are there any interventions that you feel are needed as a result of Brexit in the business support landscape?

ACTION - all to feedback relevant intelligence

Making the Integrated Transport Strategy happen

Growth Deal

JR presented a paper on the Growth Deal programme. He highlighted concerns regarding the Ely area scheme and

the timelines for business case delivery.

RP queried why timescales had changed so much. JR stated a number of reasons for this including integrating an

appropriate road solution and the number of level crossings in the area.

JD updated the Board on the Rail Network Enhancements Pipeline (RNEP) process and stated that the Secretary of

State had queried what could practically be achieved before 2024. JD suggested that this could include established

franchise commitments and some additional freight capacity, but Network Rail need to do their assessment in support

of DfT’s request in order to determine costs and deliverability.

The Board noted that while quick wins were desirable it was important to continue to push the case for the delivery of

the full programme. The Board agreed that a political strategy needed to be defined in order to promote the strategic

case with MPs.

ACTION - update from Network Rail at next meeting

ACTION - LEP Board and Ely Taskforce to consider political strategy next steps

ACTION - DF to write to the new Secretary of State outlining the LEP’s transport priorities

RIS 2 and MRN update

A RIS2 announcement is not now expected until the New Year. Copdock junction has received some early funding to

help advance the feasibility stage of progressing a free flowing A12/A14 slip.

Transport East submitted its priorities for the Major Road Network at the end of July. Both the Barnby Bends and

Long Stratton Bypass schemes have progressed to the next stage with other projects requiring some additional

clarification before a final decision is made.

Rail

GEML: new rolling stock to be introduced soon, Norwich in 90/Ipswich in 60 now in service, work ongoing to identify

infrastructure requirements needed on the line, Giles Watling MP the new Taskforce Chair.

Haughley: local commitment has helped to advance the scheme significantly.

Trowse: not needed for GEML until the 2040s but cumulative impact of GEML and east-west connectivity means

improvements are likely to be needed sooner. Initial thinking has begun between interested partners.

Greater Anglia

Good recent performance statistics, new trains continue to be brought into service, new timetable to be introduced in

December, Wherry Line re-signalling expected early 2020

ACTION - develop case study for Norfolk and Suffolk Unlimited regarding challenging perceptions once full

roll out complete

ABP

Significant recent investment across eastern ports.

Suffolk Chamber of Commerce

Written to all MP candidates outlining infrastructure priorities.

Highways England

A14 improvements to open soon. NCC said they had recently met with HE to outline their A47 delivery concerns.

ACTION - ST to provide A47 update

Suffolk County Council

Ipswich Northern Route SOBC announcement expected shortly.

Norfolk County Council

Opening of Hempnall roundabout despite drainage challenges.

Connected Places Catapult



Bluetech - forthcoming meeting with Paul Davey from Hutchison Ports. Also, in continued dialogue with Suffolk

County Council, East Suffolk Council and Tech East.



Connections Café - next meeting to coincide with an East of England Connections Café - tbc



Future Mobility Zones, Norwich - currently awaiting announcement from government now delayed after election

due to purdah



Cambridge-Norwich Tech Corridor - currently in discussions with Linn Clabburn on a feasibility study on transport

innovation on the corridor

Transport East update

The new tentative date for the postponed Transport East summit is 26 February 2020.

Transport East are holding a Carbon Inquiry over three sessions, the first of which is scheduled for 2 December.

Board comments included:



Clean maritime plan and supporting air quality strategies



Rail electrification, quick wins and franchise renewal opportunities



Environmental funding expected through RIS2

Any other business

No new items for future business were discussed

Date of next meeting - 9.30am, 25 February 2020 - Ipswich

New Anglia Transport Board

Tuesday 25^th February 2020

Agenda Item 4

Transport and Clean Growth

Author and presenter: Ellen Goodwin

Summary

This report summarises the work to date of the New Anglia LEP around clean growth and asks

the Transport Board for its thoughts on how it might contribute to this agenda moving forward.

Recommendation

The Board is asked to:

 Review the identified actions and consider next steps with respect to clean growth and

the decarbonisation agenda

 Consider other actions that the transport sector could pursue

 Agree what actions the Transport Board would like to champion and take forward as

part of its ongoing work

Background

In 2019, the New Anglia LEP commissioned the University of East Anglia to produce a Scoping

Report on carbon reduction and climate change adaptation. The output of this work can be

found at Appendix A.

On 25 September 2019, the New Anglia LEP Board endorsed the Local Industrial Strategy for

Norfolk and Suffolk, the golden thread for which is ‘clean growth’. As a result of this golden

thread the LEP Board later tasked the LEP’s sub boards and working groups responsible for

infrastructure to consider how the clean growth agenda might be achieved.

In February 2020 the New Anglia LEP Board will consider a draft action plan in support of clean

growth.

Transport and clean growth

This paper highlights the clean growth considerations with respect to transport and asks the

Board for their view on how it might contribute to achieving clean growth ambitions and the

decarbonisation agenda for Norfolk and Suffolk into the future. The ways in which transport is

already and could further contribute to this agenda include:

 Imbed clean growth ambitions in transport strategies and policies

 Improve access to/use of more sustainable modes/models through integration and

behaviour change

 Reduce the need to travel through better digital connectivity, flexible working and the

internet of things

 Consider freight movements, including maritime, and air as modes/ types for further

exploration - in order to reduce emissions significantly the full spectrum of the transport

sector should be considered

 Develop an EV strategy focussed on supporting infrastructure as well as take up

 Work with the Connected Places Catapult to drive transport innovation and support for

SMEs

 Improve air quality

 Consider the resilience of infrastructure in a changing climate

As previously stated, many of these actions are already being achieved with varying degrees of

success. However, the Climate Change Adaptation and Carbon Reduction Action Plan

Scoping Report states that:

“Data on UK greenhouse gas emissions are published by the Department for Business,

Energy & Industrial Strategy (BEIS) and include carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions estimates

for local authorities (2005-16) with a breakdown by 14 economic sectors. UK CO2 emissions

declined from 522,857 kt CO2 in 2005 to 357,470 kt CO2 in 2016. However, the decline for

transport was much smaller than that for many other sectors, less than 10,000 kt CO2, so its

relative contribution increased from 26% in 2005 to 36% in 2016.”

It is therefore critical that the transport sector further consider how it might contribute to clean

growth and the decarbonisation agenda into the future.

Indeed, Transport East is already planning how it may contribute to the decarbonisation agenda

as part of its ongoing transport strategy work and it would prove useful for the New Anglia

Transport Board to contribute to this debate.

Link to the Integrated Transport Strategy

The Integrated Transport Strategy focusses on the need to plan for the future including the

impacts of climate change and the role of renewable energy.

Recommendation

The Board is asked to:

 Review the identified actions and consider next steps with respect to clean growth and

the decarbonisation agenda

 Consider other actions that the transport sector could pursue

 Agree what actions the Transport Board would like to champion and take forward as

part of its ongoing work

Appendix A - Climate Change Adaptation and Carbon Reduction Action Plan Scoping Report

The Registry

UEA Norwich Research Park

Norwich

NR4 7TJ

Executive Summary

Climate change is increasingly recognised as a major and urgent global challenge, with existing and

projected impacts on many dimensions of sustainable development. This is reflected in the recent

decision of the UK government to adopt a target of net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by

2050 and declarations of a ‘Climate Emergency’ by many local government bodies.

The purpose of this scoping study is to help develop an action plan to incorporate climate change

adaptation and carbon reduction ambition into the objectives of the New Anglia LEP for Norfolk and

Suffolk. It is in three main sections and reviews:

• Existing knowledge on observed and projected climate changes

• Trends and geographical distribution of greenhouse gas emissions

• Local priorities for climate change mitigation and adaptation

Observed and Projected Climate Change

Details from the Met Office HadUK-Grid dataset have been analysed for two 30-year baseline time

periods (1961-90 and 1981-2010) to examine recent changes in temperature and precipitation. The

trends are stronger for temperature than precipitation and generally show an increase in indicators

of higher summer temperatures, a reduction in those for colder winter temperatures and greater

rainfall intensity. The maps below, for example, show an increase in mean summer temperatures of

at least 0.5°C between the two baseline periods.

The Registry

UEA Norwich Research Park

Norwich

NR4 7TJ

The UK Climate Projections 18 (UKCP18) outputs from the Met Office present estimates of future

climate for four pathways representing different amounts of global surface temperature increase by

2100. Mapped results at a 25 km cell resolution show little geographical variability across the region

and there is considerable uncertainty in the individual pathway projections. Nevertheless, taking the

mid-point (50^th percentile) in projections for the East of England through to around 2040 indicates

the following changes compared to a 1981-2000 baseline.

• An increase in mean summer temperature of 1.2°C to 1.6°C

• An increase in mean winter temperature of 1.0°C to 1.3°C

• A decrease in mean summer precipitation of 1% to 13%

• An increase in mean winter precipitation of 5% to 8%

UKCP18 also includes projections for future sea level rise and storm surges. It is expected that the

rise in mean sea level will be greater in the south of the UK than the north and projections for Great

Yarmouth under the most extreme of the four pathways indicate a 0.2 - 0.4m mean sea level rise by

the middle of the century and potentially 0.6 to over 1 metre by 2100. There is considerable

uncertainty in these projections, but they provide an indication of the extent of change that should

be anticipated in long-term planning.

Trends in Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Data on UK greenhouse gas emissions are published by the Department for Business, Energy &

Industrial Strategy (BEIS) and include carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions estimates for local authorities

(2005-16) with a breakdown by 14 economic sectors. UK CO2 emissions declined from 522,857 kt

CO2 in 2005 to 357,470 kt CO2 in 2016. However, the decline for transport was much smaller than

that for many other sectors so its relative contribution increased from 26% in 2005 to 36% in 2016.

Per capita CO2 emissions estimates for the UK declined from 8.7 to 5.4 tonnes/person between 2005

and 2016. Norfolk and Suffolk went from having below UK average per capita CO2 emissions in 2005

to above average in 2016 (5.7 and 5.6 tonnes/person respectively). This was associated with an

increase in the relative importance of road transport sources in the two counties. These totals will

need to reduce to no greater than 1.7 tonnes CO2e/year per capita by 2050 to meet the objective of

the Paris Agreement to limit a global temperature rise this century to 1.5 °C.

A more geographically detailed perspective on emissions can be obtained from the National

Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (NAEI) which contains both 1 km grid cell emissions estimates and

details of individual ‘point sources’ (i.e. large factories and power stations). The first map on the

next page shows gridded estimates for carbon dioxide and highlights that many parts of Norfolk and

Suffolk have relatively low CO2 emissions compared to the region around London, as well as

illustrating the extent of carbon emissions associated with road transport and shipping routes. A

second map shows major point source emitters such as power stations and food processing plants.

Overall, the 37 point sources accounted for 22.6% of total CO2 emissions in Norfolk and Suffolk

during 2016.

The Registry

UEA Norwich Research Park

Norwich

NR4 7TJ

Local Priorities for Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation

Based on the data regarding climate and greenhouse gas trends the following are suggested as

issues that need particular attention in an action plan for Norfolk and Suffolk.

Domestic Sector - The existing building stock will need to be adapted to provide suitable conditions

for people to live and work in a warmer climate. This will be important for business productivity and

also represents an opportunity for local construction businesses. An additional consideration in rural

areas that are not connected to the national gas grid will be to develop alternative means of heating

provision, both to meet decarbonisation targets and reduce reliance on oil.

Transport Sector - Increased use of public transport and electric vehicles will need to be a central

element of decarbonising transport in the next 30 years. Provision of public electric charging points

is currently limited in many parts of Norfolk and Suffolk and requires investment.

Agricultural Sector - Improved water management needs to be a priority for coming decades, both

in terms of increased storage capacity and greater use efficiency. Opportunities will exist for land

owners and managers to contribute to carbon sequestration and to develop enterprises based on

new crops or to meet demand for local renewable generation of heat and power.

Food Processing Sector - Several processing plants make a substantial contribution to regional

greenhouse gas emissions and options to reduce their carbon footprints should be investigated.

Energy Sector - The region is already a leading generator of renewable energy and the coming

decades will see a growing demand for electricity, particularly from domestic and transport sectors.

At present, there are constraints on the capacity of the electricity transmission and distribution

network in many parts of Norfolk and Suffolk and developing an investment strategy to rectify this

situation is fundamental to both meeting decarbonisation objectives as well as supporting future

economic growth. Extension of the existing high-voltage transmission network to a coastal

destination would also be beneficial to the marine renewables industry.

Many of these priorities interact with each other so it is important that an action plan should involve

coordination between sectors as well as initiatives within them. Overall, the challenges of climate

change mitigation and adaptation are considerable, but they will be less formidable if action is taken

sooner than later, and this could also provide important opportunities and benefits for businesses

and residents in Norfolk and Suffolk.

The Registry

UEA Norwich Research Park

Norwich

NR4 7TJ

Introduction

Climate change is increasingly recognised as a major and urgent global challenge, with existing and

projected impacts on many dimensions of sustainable development (Intergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change (IPCC), 2018; Committee on Climate Change (CCC), 2019a). This is reflected in the

recent decision of the UK government to adopt a target of net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions

by 2050 (HM Government, 2019) and declarations of a ‘Climate Emergency’ by many local

government bodies (see https://climateemergency.uk/). Addressing the mitigation (limiting

emissions of GHGs) and adaptation (altering how we live) challenges of climate change will require

action by many different organisations, from global to local scales and in both the public and private

sectors.

Aims

The purpose of this scoping study and report is to help develop an action plan to incorporate climate

change adaptation and carbon reduction ambition into the objectives of the New Anglia LEP for

Norfolk and Suffolk. It details current knowledge that could underpin development of a full action

plan covering three interconnected priorities:

• How can businesses in Norfolk and Suffolk increase their resilience to climate change while

maximising their growth opportunities?

• How can Norfolk and Suffolk contribute to the national carbon reduction goals while meeting

its own objectives for growth and employment; where are the new opportunities arising?

• How can national and international responses to climate change support wider objectives of

reducing poverty in Norfolk and Suffolk and create new opportunities for clean growth?

This scoping report examines historic and projected climate data and trends, highlights key

government research related to business risks and adaptation needs, and indicates initial steps

towards the development of a full adaptation and mitigation action plan for Norfolk and Suffolk.

The Registry

UEA Norwich Research Park

Norwich

NR4 7TJ

Part I. Climate Data and Projections

This section reviews the existing knowledge on historic climate and projected changes in Norfolk and

Suffolk.

1.1 Indications of changes in local climate from the recent historic record

Land surface weather observations for the UK dating back to 1862 have been compiled into a 1 km

by 1 km gridded dataset (HadUK-Grid) which is available from the Met Office website¹. It contains

daily, monthly, seasonal and annual values for a range of variables that enables the analysis of

changes in extremes and also the long term averages (over 30 year timespans) that provide a set of

climatological reference periods for the UK.

The examination of changes in climate between 30 year reference periods² is a standard way of

examining how the climate is changing over time.

For this study data from HadUK-Grid have been downloaded for Norfolk and Suffolk and imported

into a Geographical Information System (GIS) to enable further analysis and mapping. To illustrate

recent changes in the climate of Norfolk and Suffolk, two reference periods have been selected. The

1961-90 baseline coincides with many early reports from the IPCC and therefore enables these

results to be compared against those documents. The 1981-2010 baseline is the basis for the new

UKCP18 climate change scenarios (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/collaboration/ukcp).

Many of the maps published from UKCP18 data present potential future changes in climate from this

baseline. Hence, using these two periods enables results in this study to be interpreted against a

wide body of literature and existing research.

Temperature and precipitation are the weather variables of greatest familiarity and so, for

illustration, Figure 1 shows mean annual summer (June, July, August) temperatures for both baseline

periods and Figure 2 does the same for mean winter (December, January, February) temperatures.

Figures 3 and 4 map mean summer and winter precipitation respectively, again for both baseline

periods. Summer temperatures tend to be higher in the south of the region and in many places are

at least 0.5°C higher in the second baseline period. Mean winter temperatures show a similar

change between the two time periods, though with lower values inland and higher average

temperatures around the coast.

For precipitation, the differences between the two baseline periods are less pronounced, though

there is a tendency for summer precipitation to increase in the east of the region and winter

averages are higher in the north and east compared to further inland.

¹ https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/data/haduk-grid/haduk-grid

² Climate is the weather of a place averaged over a period of time, conventionally 30 years

The Registry

UEA Norwich Research Park

Norwich

NR4 7TJ

An additional perspective on observed changes is provided by Met Office indices on climate

extremes (Met Office, 2018a). These are published on a regional basis and are summarised for the

Met Office East Anglian region (defined as the East of England NUTS 1 region but excluding

Peterborough) in Table 1.

Table 1: Observed changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the Met Office East

Anglian region

1961-1990

1981-2010

Most Recent Decade

Variable

Reference Period

(2008-2017)

High Temperature Indices

Highest daily maximum temperature (°C)

28.5

29.9

30.3

Summer days (number of days with maximum

10.8

16.4

15.7

temperature above 25°C)

Low Temperature Indices

Icing days (number of days with maximum

2.9

2.0

1.0

temperature below 0°C)

Lowest daily minimum temperature (°C)

-8.1

-7.1

-6.9

Cold spell duration index (days where

temperature is below the 90^th percentile of

3.7

2.8

1.0

1961-90 baseline)

Precipitation indices

Maximum 5-day precipitation (mm of rainfall

50.6

53.1

51.8

accumulated over 5 days)

Rainfall from extremely wet days (total

50.1

56.8

53.2

rainfall days in excess of 1961-90 baseline)

Source: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/uk-climate/state-of-the-uk-climate/soc_supplement-002.pdf

The indices in Table 1 show the following trends between the two 30-year baseline periods:

• An increase in indicators of higher temperatures

• A reduction in indicators of colder temperatures

• An increase in indicators of rainfall intensity

Several of these trends continue in the data from the 2008-2017 decade (e.g. those for colder

temperatures), but this is not always the case. For instance, the indicators of rainfall intensity are

lower for 2008-2017 than 1981-2100, though higher than in 1961-1990. This highlights the

variability of weather and consequently the importance of evaluating changes in climate over longer

periods of time.

Overall, the maps and indices suggest that the climate of Norfolk and Suffolk has become warmer in

recent decades, with cold spells getting shorter and less cold. This has direct relevance to

agricultural and horticultural production, and potential adaptive consequences for the food and

The Registry

UEA Norwich Research Park

Norwich

NR4 7TJ

drink sector, but will also affect businesses and industrial premises and other NALEP priority sectors

e.g. through changes to heating and cooling requirements.

There is more ambiguity with regard to long-term precipitation trends, although it does appear that

rainfall intensity is increasing and extremely wet days are becoming more frequent. Again, this can

have direct consequences for farming and agricultural production, but wider implications for other

business sectors and society in general e.g. with regard to flooding risks.

With regard to the potential for changes in frequency or intensity of other climate indicators (e.g.

wind storms or droughts) the State of the UK Climate 2017 report (Kendon et al., 2018) examines the

observed data for possible shifting trends, but reports that the evidence for change in extreme

weather events appears to be weak at present.

1.2 Projected future changes in local climate

A new set of climate change projections for the UK have recently been published by the Met Office

Hadley Centre Climate Programme. UKCP18 (UK Climate Projections 2018) is based on the latest

climate science and examines how the climate may change over the 21^st century including, for the

first time, the influence of mitigation measures.

The UKCP18 climate change scenarios are based on four Representative Concentration Pathways

(RCPs) that estimate GHG emissions and climate change for future radiative forcing targets in 2100

of 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5 Wm² (watts per meter squared). Radiative forcing is the difference between

insolation (sunlight) absorbed by the Earth and energy radiated back to space and is influenced by

atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. Table 2 shows the projected increase in global

mean surface temperature under each pathway.

Table 2: UKCP18 climate change scenarios

Increase in global mean surface

RCP

temperature (°C) by 2081-2100

Comment

RCP2.6

1.6 (0.9 - 2.3)

Closest to Paris Agreement

RCP4.5

2.4 (1.7 - 3.2)

‘most likely’

RCP6.0

2.8 (2.0 - 3.7)

Intermediate stabilisation

RCP8.5

4.3 (3.2 - 5.4)

No mitigation

Source: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/ukcp18/science-reports/UKCP18-Overview-report.pdf

RCP2.6 keeps climate change to below 2.0°C and is closest to meeting the Paris Agreement target of

limiting the increase in global average temperature to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. RCP4.5 is

considered the ‘most likely’ pathway given current trends in GHG emissions. Emissions stabilise at

2030s with no further increases after that. RCP6.0 assumes some continuing increase in emissions

The Registry

UEA Norwich Research Park

Norwich

NR4 7TJ

increase after 2030s and RCP8.5 assumes no mitigation, and therefore represents an extreme

position (Met Office, 2019).

Data are available at 25 km grid cell resolution for all scenarios. A web-based user Interface³ enables

maps and data to be downloaded for further analysis. An example of the kind of map that can be

generated via the user Interface is shown in Figure 5.

The top row of maps in Figure 5 show the projected change in maximum summer temperatures for

the period 2030-2059, compared to the 1981-2010 baseline under the RCP4.5 pathway. All the

projections have an uncertainty range, represented by the three maps - the 10^th and 90^th percentiles

indicating values towards the lower and upper extremes of likelihood respectively, while the 50^th

percentile represents the mid-point of likelihood for that particular pathway. The values mapped

are temperature anomalies so illustrate differences from the 1981-2010 baseline. In the 50^th

percentile map all of the region is in the category for a 1-2°C projected increase, while the 10^th and

90^th percentile maps show a rise of 0-1°C and 2-3°C respectively.

The bottom row of maps shows the same variable under the extreme RCP8.5 pathway. Comparing

pathways provides a means of evaluating the sensitivity of outcomes to input assumptions and in

this case the 50^th percentile map indicates that parts of the region could experience a 2-3°C increase

in maximum summer temperatures with an upper estimate (90^th percentile) of 3-4°C.

All of the maps show little variability across Norfolk and Suffolk, but there are plans to produce

downscaled versions of the projections at a 2.2 km resolution (Fang, 2019) which would enable a

more detailed assessment of geographical variations in potential impacts.

Additional details can be extracted via the user interface to examine projections at a regional scale.

Table 3 shows results for the East of England region in terms of changes in temperature and

precipitation from 1981-2000 to around 2040 (represented by 2030-49 period). The values cover all

four scenarios and five points on the range of uncertainty. One feature of these results is the range

of uncertainty (e.g. as represented by the range between the 5^th and 95^th percentile values), but the

50^th percentile results (i.e. mid point of likelihood) suggest:

• An increase in mean summer temperature of 1.2°C to 1.6°C

• An increase in mean winter temperature of 1.0°C to 1.3°C

• A decrease in mean summer precipitation of 1% to 13%

• An increase in mean winter precipitation of 5% to 8%

³ https://ukclimateprojections-ui.metoffice.gov.uk/

The Registry

UEA Norwich Research Park

Norwich

NR4 7TJ

Table 3: Projected changes in temperature and precipitation for the East of England from 1981-

2000 to around 2040 (2030-2049)

5^th

10^th

50^th

90^th

95^th

Emissions

percentile

Variable

Scenario

change

RCP2.6

0.3

0.5

1.6

2.6

2.9

mean summer

RCP4.5

0.3

1.3

2.3

2.6

temperature (°C)

RCP6.0

0.2

1.2

2.3

2.6

2030-2049

RCP8.5

0.2

0.6

1.6

2.8

3.1

RCP2.6

-0.2

0.1

2.3

mean winter temperature

RCP4.5

-0.1

0.2

1.1

1.9

2.2

(°C) 2030-2049

RCP6.0

-0.1

0.2

1.9

2.1

RCP8.5

0.1

0.3

1.3

2.3

2.6

RCP2.6

-37

-31

-11

mean summer

RCP4.5

-38

-32

-10

precipitation (%)

RCP6.0

-37

-31

-10

2030-2049

RCP8.5

-43

-36

-13

RCP2.6

-8

-5

mean winter precipitation

RCP4.5

-8

-5

(%) 2030-2049

RCP6.0

-8

-5

RCP8.5

-7

-4

Source: UKCP18-Key-results.xlsx - The UKCP18 datasets are all available under Open Government Licence

(http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/doc/open-government-licence).

Another feature of Table 3 is that pathways with higher radiative forcing targets for 2100 are not

always associated with larger projected changes in temperature and precipitation for 2040. One

example of this is in the 50^th percentile results for mean summer temperature where the projected

changes for RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 are identical and greater than those for RCP4.5 and RCP6.0. This

particular effect is because of a faster decline in aerosols (which have a cooling effect) in RCP2.6 and

a consequent accentuation of warming trends in the next few decades (Chalmers et al., 2012;

Westervelt et al., 2015). However, in the latter half of the 21^st Century the influence of increased

C02 concentrations dominates, leading to a clearer association between higher radiative forcing and

greater projected changes in temperature or precipitation. This situation is illustrated for

temperature in Figure 6 and precipitation for Figure 7 using the central (50^th percentile) values for

each pathway through to the end of the 21^st Century. These graphs provide another perspective on

the projected temperature increases and changes in precipitation for the East of England over this

timescale.

The Registry

UEA Norwich Research Park

Norwich

NR4 7TJ

1.3 Sea level

It is widely reported that global sea level is rising and will continue to rise over the coming centuries.

Within the UK it is expected that sea level rise will be slightly greater in the south of the country than

the north (Met Office 2018b). Observed sea level trend data is available for Cromer and Felixstowe

from the National Tidal and Sea level facility https://www.ntslf.org/products/sea-level-trend-charts.

UKCP18 includes projections for future sea level rise and storm surges. The study found that

extreme sea levels will increase due to the rise in mean sea level, but found no evidence for

significant changes in future storm surges (Met Office 2018c). However, due to the considerable

year-to-year variability in coastal water levels, one of its key recommendations is that coastal

decision makers should account for this in risk assessments, particularly for shorter-term planning

horizons (Met Office 2018c). As with the weather data, sea level rise projections can be

downloaded via the Met Office user interface. Figure 8 shows sea level rise projections from 2007 -

2100 relative to a 1981-2000 baseline, under the RCP8.5 scenario, for a grid-reference

approximating to Great Yarmouth. Noting that RCP8.5 is the most extreme scenario, the plotted

data show a 0.2 - 0.4m mean sea level rise by the middle of the century and potentially 0.6 to over 1

metre by the end of the century.

Figure 8: Local sea level rise projections 2007 - 2100 relative to 1981-2000 baseline under the

RCP8.5 scenario for a grid-reference approximate to Great Yarmouth

The Registry

UEA Norwich Research Park

Norwich

NR4 7TJ

Zsamboky et al. (2011) identify the following combined risks from sea level rise and climate changes

for the East Anglian coastline:

• Weakening and collapse of cliffs due to desiccation as a result of higher summer temperatures

and lower precipitation; also cliff destabilisation as a result of decreasing vegetation cover.

• Weakening and collapse of cliffs due to increased precipitation in winter, which causes more

water to penetrate into desiccated cracks.

• Higher rates of coastal erosion from higher sea levels, more frequent storm surges and

weakened cliffs.

• High erosion contributing to enhanced rates of longshore drift which may pose threats to the

major ports of Great Yarmouth, Felixstowe and Harwich.

Overall, the precautionary principle would suggest that coastal businesses and land-owners should

make an evaluation of impacts from sea level rise a consideration in long-term planning and monitor

future research updates on storm surges.

The Registry

UEA Norwich Research Park

Norwich

NR4 7TJ

Part II. Emissions Data and Projections

Data on UK greenhouse gas emissions are published by the Department for Business, Energy &

Industrial Strategy (BEIS) and are available at https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/uk-

greenhouse-gas-emissions-statistics. These include carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions estimates for

local authorities (2005-16) with a breakdown by 14 sectors which can be summarised into the

following key groups - industry/commercial, agriculture, domestic, road transport, diesel railways,

other transport and, ‘land use, land use change and forestry’ (LULUCF) which due to CO2 offset

through carbon sequestration, can be represented in the data by negative emissions values. The

dataset also provides population and per capita CO2 estimates for each local authority area.

Over 2005-2016 the data show that the general trend in UK CO2 emissions was downwards, totalling

522,857 kt CO2 in 2005 and reducing to around 357,470 kt CO2 in 2016. However, while there was a

reduction of approximately 100,000 kt CO2 from industry/commercial sectors and just over 50,000 kt

CO2 from domestic sources in that time period, the decline for transport was less than 10,000 kt CO2.

This meant that the relative contribution from transport sources increased from 26% in 2005 to 36%

in 2016.

Table 4 shows changes in per capita CO2 estimates for the UK, Norfolk, Suffolk and their constituent

local authorities between 2005-16. Norfolk and Suffolk went from having below UK average per

capita CO2 emissions in 2005 to above average in 2016. This was associated with an increase in the

relative importance of road transport sources in the two counties. Contrasts between urban and

rural areas are also evident in the statistics for individual authorities, with declines of around 45%

between 2005 and 2016 in Ipswich and Norwich, compared to a national average of 37% and 32%

for Norfolk and Suffolk as a whole.

Table 4: Changes in per capita CO2 emissions (t/person) in 2005-16

Area

2005

2010

2016

% Decline 2005-16

UK Total

8.7

7.4

5.4

37.1

Norfolk Total

8.4

8.0

5.7

32.2

Suffolk Total

8.2

7.6

5.6

32.1

Breckland

7.7

6.7

5.1

33.0

Broadland

7.9

8.2

6.0

25.0

Great Yarmouth

5.9

5.3

3.8

35.4

King's Lynn and West Norfolk

11.4

12.8

8.0

30.3

North Norfolk

8.7

7.9

6.0

31.3

Norwich

6.9

5.8

3.8

44.3

South Norfolk

9.1

8.1

6.3

29.9

Babergh

8.1

7.4

5.6

29.9

Forest Heath

9.9

8.8

6.8

31.4

Ipswich

5.8

4.8

3.1

46.2

Mid Suffolk

9.4

8.1

6.4

32.1

St Edmundsbury

12.6

13.6

9.3

26.1

Suffolk Coastal

6.8

5.9

4.6

32.5

Waveney

6.7

6.2

4.5

32.0

The Registry

UEA Norwich Research Park

Norwich

NR4 7TJ

The per capita values for Norfolk and Suffolk in 2016 are slightly higher than that for Lincolnshire

(5.4 t/person), but lower than the average for Cambridgeshire (7.2 t/person). The latter reflects

higher emissions from road transport and a positive contribution from land use change. However, it

is sobering to note that all will need to reduce these figures to no greater than 1.7 tonnes CO2e/year

per capita by 2050 to meet the requirements of the Paris Agreement to keep a global temperature

rise this century well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursue limiting it to 1.5 °C (CCC,

2019a, Table 1).

Further insight into the differences between districts can be obtained from Figures 8 and 9 which

show the composition of CO2 emissions by sector groupings for local authorities in Norfolk and

Suffolk. It is apparent that contributions from transport (overwhelmingly road transport) are higher

in more rural districts and that a few authorities (e.g. Kings Lynn and West Norfolk, St Edmundsbury)

have relatively large emissions from industrial or commercial sectors. In many districts the

contributions from land use (LULUCF) are negative, reflecting processes such as carbon

sequestration by forests and woodland.

Figure 8: Emissions estimates (kt CO2) by sector for Norfolk districts, 2016

The Registry

UEA Norwich Research Park

Norwich

NR4 7TJ

Figure 9: Emissions estimates (kt CO2) by sector for Suffolk districts, 2016

A more geographically detailed perspective on GHG emissions can be obtained from the National

Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (NAEI) (http://naei.beis.gov.uk/data/) which contains both 1 km

grid cell emissions estimates and details of individual ‘point sources’ (i.e. large factories and power

stations). Figures 10 to 12 present 1 km resolution maps for C02, methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide

(N2O) which are the three most important greenhouse gases. The map for CO2 (Figure 10) highlights

urban areas and main roads, whereas for methane and nitrous oxide it is various agricultural and

combustion sources that are more important.

A view of CO2 emissions across a larger geographical region is provided by Figure 13 which includes

shipping sources (excluded from Figure 10) and also extends down to London. The map highlights

that many parts of Norfolk and Suffolk have relatively low CO2 emissions compared to the region

around London, as well as illustrating the extent of carbon emissions associated with shipping routes

and ports such as Felixstowe and Great Yarmouth.

The Registry

UEA Norwich Research Park

Norwich

NR4 7TJ

Information on point source emissions of C02 from the National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory is

mapped in Figure 14. Each point is mapped with a circle to represent the amount of emissions and a

symbol to show the sector involved. There are 37 sources in total. The emissions data are reported

as tonnes of carbon rather than CO2 and for the 37 point sources total 568,019 tonnes in 2016.

One tonne of carbon is equal to 3.67 tonnes of C02 (conversion based on atomic weights) so 568,019

tonnes of carbon is equivalent to 2,088,303 tonnes of CO2. The BEIS emission estimates summarised

in Figures 8 and 9 total 9,232,700 tonnes of CO2 for Norfolk and Suffolk in 2016 so the 37 point

sources account for 22.6% of total CO2 emissions.

Source: National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory http://naei.beis.gov.uk/data/map-large-source

Figure 14: Major point source emitters of Carbon Dioxide in Norfolk and Suffolk during 2016

The Registry

UEA Norwich Research Park

Norwich

NR4 7TJ

Table 5 summarises the point source emissions of CO2, methane and nitrous oxide by key economic

sectors. Their total emissions (given in tonnes in the original NAEI data) have been converted to CO2

equivalents (CO2e) to aid interpretation.

Table 5: Point source greenhouse gas emissions in Norfolk and Suffolk in 2016

CH4 as

Nitrous

N20 as

Carbon

Methane

CO2e

Oxide

CO2e

Emissions

CO2

Emissions

Emission

Emissions

Emission

Sector

(tonnes)

Emissions

(tonnes)

Agriculture

3,309

12,144

0.2

5.3

0.0

6.4

Food processing

201,853

740,800

36%

24.2

605.8

3.2

946.5

Energy

303,248

1,112,919

53%

2,348.1

58,702.5

41.5

12,371.8

92%

Others

59,610

218,768

10%

6.2

155.0

0.4

126.7

Total

568,019

2,084,632

2,379

59,469

13,451

Conversion factors: https://climatechangeconnection.org/emissions/co2-equivalents/

Source: National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory http://naei.beis.gov.uk/data/map-large-source

These results indicate that power/energy producers (gas and biomass) are the largest point source

emitters of all three greenhouse gases. However, there is a significant contribution from food and

drink producers so businesses in these and other food producing industries would be an appropriate

focus for initiatives to reduce their carbon footprints.

The Registry

UEA Norwich Research Park

Norwich

NR4 7TJ

Part III. Developing a Climate Change Adaptation and Carbon Reduction Action Plan

Assisting businesses with identifying potential climate change impacts that might affect their

operation or profitability, helping them examine their own contribution to climate change and how

they can mitigate this, and supporting them to plan for and adapt to climate change is an important

part of the overall response that society needs to make to meet the challenges ahead. Although

there is now widespread agreement that action on climate change is urgent and necessary, there

may also be a task in convincing some organisations of the need for self-reflection and change in the

face of more short-term pressures.

There is an extensive literature on such issues. At the national level, the Committee on Climate

Change’s UK Climate Change Risk Assessments (CCRA), undertaken 5-yearly, provide a useful

overview of potential risks to businesses from climate change⁴. Table 6 reproduces findings from the

latest report (Adaptation Sub-Committee (ASC), 2016) summarising the risks/opportunities to

businesses in England along with an urgency score for action needed by government to support the

business sector.

Table 6: Actions need to support business identified in the 2^nd UK Climate Change Risk Assessment

Risk/Opportunity

Urgency Score

Rationale for Scoring

More effort needed in England to address flood risks and

Bu1: Risks to business sites from

More action

inform businesses of their current and future exposure

flooding

needed

and what steps they might take to limit impacts.

Bu2: Risks to business from loss of

More research needed on costs and benefits of

Research priority

coastal locations and infrastructure

adaptation options for different coastal areas.

Bu3: Risks to business operations

Sustain current

Sustain current actions to create more flexible regimes

from water scarcity.

action

and promote water efficiency among businesses

Monitor and research action by regulators, banks and

Bu4: Risks to business from reduced

Watching brief

insurance firms, and information disclosures by UK

access to capital

companies

Bu5: Risks to business from reduced

More research needed on disruption to ICT, power and

employee productivity, due to

transport infrastructure which prevents workers accessing

infrastructure disruption and higher

Research priority

premises or working remotely, and on impacts of higher

temperatures in working

temperatures on employee safety and productivity

environments

Bu6: Risks to business from

Sustain and monitor the uptake of existing guidance

disruption to supply chains and

Sustain current

which helps businesses improve the resilience of supply

distribution networks. (Also

action

chains and distribution networks, particularly at the

international risks)

international level

Bu7: Risks and opportunities for

Monitor sales of adaptation goods and services within the

business from changes in demand for

Watching brief

UK and by UK companies

goods and services

Source: Adapted from ASC (2016) Table SR.A.4: Urgency of additional actions to support business

⁴ An excellent review of both the CCRA work and overall status of the knowledge base relating to climate

change risk to businesses is provided by Surminski et al. (2018)

The Registry

UEA Norwich Research Park

Norwich

NR4 7TJ

The UK National Adaptation Programme is informed by the priorities identified by the CCRA. Figure

15 provides a graphical overview of the current state of the UK National Adaptation Programme as

presented in a recent update report (CCC, 2017) and in the 2^nd UK National Adaptation Programme

report (DEFRA, 2018). It also incorporates the actions identified in Table 6.

Figure 15: Status of the UK National Adaptation Programme (CCC, 2017)

The matrix in Figure 15 classifies different adaptation priorities according to whether plans or

policies are in place and whether progress is being made in managing vulnerability. Issues classified

as green on both dimensions are those where there is generally reduced concern (e.g. resilience of

The Registry

UEA Norwich Research Park

Norwich

NR4 7TJ

water and energy infrastructure) while those rated as red (e.g. soil health and carbon sequestration)

are particular priorities.

A summary of climate change risks for the East of England was published by Sustainability East

(2012) in response to the first CCRA. This reflected the national findings, stating that the

“... main climate challenges to businesses include flooding and coastal erosion, increased competition

for water, and disruption of transport and communication links... The degree to which individual

organisations are affected depends upon their level of vulnerability and adaptive capacity... There

are potentially significant advantages to be gained for those businesses taking on the challenge.”

(p.8).

3.1 Downscaling to Norfolk and Suffolk and individual businesses

Whilst governments need to understand the risks and opportunities from climate change at a broad-

scale across business and industry sectors, individual businesses may need to evaluate these at a

site-specific scale or across their entire value chain of activity (i.e. impacts on suppliers through to

operational factors and changes in customer behaviour, both domestic and international).

As a consequence, the impacts of climate change can be both indirect (as above) or direct (e.g. if a

business has to close or relocate due to flooding). Some sectors (e.g. ICT) may adapt by shifting

location, others will need to adapt in-situ (i.e. agriculture). The latest CCRA also highlights certain

sectors where the effect of climate variability is likely to be more pronounced in terms of risks and

opportunities e.g. tourism, insurance and finance, agriculture, food, utilities, engineering and

consultancy (as reported in Surminski et al., 2018).

For large companies there may be legal requirements or voluntary decisions to undertake risk

assessments and reporting (e.g. through corporate social responsibility reports or participations in

initiatives such as the Carbon Disclosure Project or Task Force on Climate-related Financial

Disclosures, Surminski et al., 2018). However, it is unclear how many smaller businesses have

considered climate change in their forward planning and, even if they have, much of this information

will not be in the public domain.

An initial scoping of potential considerations in relation to three key sectors of the economy in

Norfolk and Suffolk (energy; digital/ICT; agriculture, food and drink) is presented in Table 7. In

relation to agriculture, a recent PostNote on climate change and agriculture (Houses of Parliament,

2019) identified this sector as both one of the most vulnerable to climate change (with implications

for food security) as well as being the fourth highest GHG emitting sector globally.

For agriculture, in particular, there is a considerable body of literature relating to adaptation and

decarbonisation that is too large to summarise here (the PostNote mentioned in the previous

paragraph alone cites 126 research articles). The IPCC has published widely on the subject and most

recently has called for ‘rapid and far-reaching’ transitions in both agriculture and dietary change to

achieve the 1.5°C target of the Paris Agreement (IPCC, 2018). This is likely to lead to new initiatives

The Registry

UEA Norwich Research Park

Norwich

NR4 7TJ

and opportunities for farming businesses as part of the planned reform of agricultural policies.

However, many of the potential risks (e.g. flooding, restrictions in water availability, loss of

productivity through overheating, increased energy demand for cooling, sea level rise etc.) are cross-

sectoral and simply scoping out or summarising the literature will add little to understanding local

business vulnerability and needs.

Table 7: Potential adaptation and decarbonisation considerations for key economic sectors

Sector and Climate

Change Pressures

Adaptation Considerations

Decarbonisation Considerations

Energy

How ‘resilient’ are these

Opportunities for increased

Infrastructure constraints? (e.g.

industries to climate change?

renewable energy generation as

limiting ability to connect new

fossil fuels are displaced.

renewables to the grid)

e.g. nuclear and offshore wind

to sea level rise?

Policy changes (e.g.

‘renationalising’ the national grid -

would this speed up or slow down

decarbonisation?)

Carbon capture and storage? How

soon will this be feasible?

Digital Creative and ICT

Less ‘location’ sensitive than

Growth in digital devices =

some other sectors

increasing proportion of

domestic/business energy use (up

to 20% of electricity demand by

2050 cited by some studies). Life-

cycle analysis needed for ‘smart

technologies’.

Agriculture, Food and Drink

High location dependence -

How closely tied are food processing

Will societal changes (e.g. in dietary

need for adaptation.

businesses to local agricultural

preferences) affect these

producers? Will this relationship

businesses?

Vulnerable to reduced water

adapt or decouple?

availability (e.g. for irrigation)

Opportunities for increased carbon

Potential for shift in crop types

sequestration through changes in

bringing opportunities and

crop cultivation practices, more

challenges (capital costs and risks in

afforestation or bioenergy.

changing farming practices)

Instead, at the individual business level there may be a need for simplified tools or guides that

businesses can use to work through issues relevant to their activities and identify appropriate

actions and responses for themselves. As an example, a ‘business function’ risk assessment tool,

developed by UKCIP (2013), evaluates business risk in the following six areas:

The Registry

UEA Norwich Research Park

Norwich

NR4 7TJ

• Products and services

• Employee and labour productivity

• Site location

• Distribution (output)

• Supply chain (input)

• Access to capital

This online assessment tool is available at https://ukcip.ouce.ox.ac.uk/wizard/future-climate-

vulnerability/bacliat/.

3.2 Elements of an Action Plan for Norfolk and Suffolk

Based on the material discussed in previous sections the following are identified as key issues in

particular sectors that need attention in a climate change adaptation and carbon reduction action

plan for Norfolk and Suffolk.

1) The Domestic Sector - There will be a need to adapt the existing building stock to provide

suitable conditions for people to live and work in a warmer climate. This will be important for

business productivity and also represents an opportunity for local construction businesses.

There is an additional consideration in rural parts of Norfolk and Suffolk that many households

are not connected to the national gas grid. Across England, 13% of households were not

connected to the gas grid in 2016, but the proportion for Norfolk and Suffolk was 30% and there

were five local authorities (Breckland, King’s Lynn and West Norfolk, North Norfolk, South

Norfolk and Mid Suffolk) where the share was above 40% (BEIS, 2018). This is important

because it increases current reliance on oil for heating and means that the future option of

supplying hydrogen through the gas grid is not available. There is consequently a need for

initiatives to test and evaluate alternative means of heating provision, both to meet

decarbonisation targets and reduce reliance on oil.

2) The Transport Sector - Decarbonising transport will need to be a major feature of climate

change mitigation policies in the next 30 years. Increased use of public transport and electric

vehicles will be a central element of such initiatives and will require greater investment in

charging infrastructure. At present, many parts of Norfolk and Suffolk have little provision of

public charging points (see Local Energy East, 2018, Figure 9) and addressing such gaps will be

important in maintaining economic activities alongside transport decarbonisation.

3) The Agricultural Sector - Agriculture faces both risks and opportunities from climate change.

The threats include more variable weather conditions that impact crop and livestock

production and pressures on water resources. Improved water management needs to be a

priority for coming decades, both in terms of increased storage capacity and greater use

efficiency (e.g. through investment in reservoirs and transfer schemes).

The Registry

UEA Norwich Research Park

Norwich

NR4 7TJ

Opportunities for agriculture include the potential to contribute to carbon sequestration

through changes in cultivation practices and improved soil management. These could be

supported as ‘public goods’ in future agri-environmental schemes. A warmer climate may also

offer scope to grow new crops or introduce other enterprises. For instance, Norfolk and Suffolk

have been identified as counties with considerable potential for vineyards (Nesbitt et al., 2018)

and there is likely to be increased demand for local renewable generation of heat and power

(e.g. through anaerobic digestion or other forms of bioenergy).

4) The Food Processing Sector - There are a number of processing plants that make a substantial

contribution to regional GHG emissions. It would be an important step towards meeting

decarbonisation objectives if these businesses could be supported to lower the carbon

footprints of their production processes.

5) The Energy Sector - The East of England is already one of the leading regions of England in

terms of the generation of renewable energy (Local Energy East, 2018) and this will need to

further increase in coming decades to meet a growing demand for electricity, particularly from

domestic and transport sectors. At present, however, there are constraints on the capacity of

the electricity transmission and distribution network in many parts of Norfolk and Suffolk (see

Local Energy East, 2018, Figure 6) and developing an investment strategy to rectify this

situation is fundamental to both meeting decarbonisation objectives and well as supporting

future economic growth. It is also worth noting that the existing high-voltage (400 kV)

transmission network does not extend into northern and eastern Norfolk, as well as north-east

Suffolk (see Local Energy East, 2018, Figure 2). If investment was made into extend the

network to the coast in this region (e.g. to Great Yarmouth or Bacton) it would have

appreciable benefits for the marine renewable industry, as well as supporting associated

onshore activities.

The above discussion of priorities has been structured around individual sectors, but it is important

to recognise that there are many interactions between them. It is, for instance, increasingly

common to refer to a food-energy-water nexus (e.g. Simpson and Jewitt, 2019) and meeting future

decarbonisation objectives is likely to be as much a matter of achieving coordination between

sectors as initiatives within them. Other requirements for any action plan, such as raising

awareness, disseminating information and promoting the resilience of critical infrastructure are also

cross-sectoral and emphasise that addressing the challenges of climate change will require action

across society and by many different organisations in Norfolk and Suffolk.

The Registry

UEA Norwich Research Park

Norwich

NR4 7TJ

References

Adaptation Sub-Committee (ASC) (2016) UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017 Synthesis Report:

Priorities for the next Five Years. Adaptation Sub-Committee of the Committee on Climate Change,

London. Available at https://www.theccc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/UK-CCRA-2017-

Synthesis-Report-Committee-on-Climate-Change.pdf.

BEIS (2018) Sub-National Estimates of Households not Connected to the Gas Network 2012-2016.

Available at https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/sub-national-gas-consumption-data.

Chalmers C, Highwood EJ, Hawkins E, Sutton R, Wilcox LJ (2012) Aerosol contribution to the rapid

warming of near-term climate under RCP 2.6. Geophysical Research Letters 39, L18709,

doi:10.1029/2012GL052848, 2012

CCC (2017) Progress in Preparing for Climate Change 2017. Report to Parliament Committee on

Climate Change. June 2017. Adaptation Sub-Committee of the Committee on Climate Change,

London.

CCC (2019a) Net Zero: The UK’s Contribution to Stopping Global Warming. Committee on Climate

Change, London. Available at https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/net-zero-the-uks-contribution-

to-stopping-global-warming/

CCC (2019b) Net Zero Technical report. Committee on Climate Change. May 2019. Available at

https://www.theccc.org.uk/publication/net-zero-technical-report/

DEFRA (2018) The National Adaptation Programme and the Third Strategy for Climate Adaptation

Reporting: Making the country resilient to a changing climate. July 2018. DEFRA. Available at

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file

/727252/national-adaptation-programme-2018.pdf.

Fung, F et al. (2019) UKCP18 National Climate Projections. Presentation at CIWEM Conference on

Climate Resilience and Extreme Incidents, April 2019. Available at

https://www.ciwem.org/assets/pdf/Events/Past%20Presentations/Resilience/1.3%20Fai%20Fung.pd

HM Government (2019) Government gives details on setting a UK net zero emissions target.

Available at https://www.parliament.uk/business/news/2019/june/government-gives-details-on-

setting-a-uk-net-zero-emissions-target/.

Houses of Parliament (2019) Climate Change and Agriculture. PostNote Number 600, May 2019.

London: Houses of Parliament, Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology. Available at

https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/POST-PN-0600.

IPCC (2018) Summary for Policymakers. In: Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the

Impacts of Global Warming of 1.5°C above Pre-Industrial Levels and Related Global Greenhouse Gas

The Registry

UEA Norwich Research Park

Norwich

NR4 7TJ

Emission Pathways, in the Context of Strengthening the Global Response to the Threat of Climate

Change, Sustainable Development, and Efforts to Eradicate Poverty (Masson-Delmotte V et al., eds).

World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland. Available at https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/.

Kendon M, McCarthy M, Jevrejeva S, Matthews A, Legg T (2018) State of the UK climate 2017.

International Journal of Climatology 38, Issue S2 pp 1-35, DOI: 10.1002/joc.5798.

Local Energy East (2018) Local Energy East Strategy: An Energy Strategy for the Tri-LEP Area.

Available at https://newanglia.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/LEE-Strategy-LOW-RES.pdf

Met Office (2018a) State of the UK Climate 2017: Supplementary report on Climate Extremes. Met

Office, National Climate Information Centre. Available at

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/mohippo/pdf/uk-climate/state-of-the-uk-

climate/soc_supplement-002.pdf.

Met Office (2018b) UKCP18 Marine Report. Met Office, National Climate Information Centre.

Available at https://ukclimateprojections.metoffice.gov.uk.

Met Office (2018c) UKCP18 Factsheet: Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge. Met Office, National Climate

Information Centre. Available at

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/research/ukcp/ukcp18-

fact-sheet-sea-level-rise-and-storm-surge.pdf

Met Office (2019) UKCP18 Science Overview Report. November 2018 (updated March 2019). Met

Office, National Climate Information Centre. Available at

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/ukcp18/science-reports/UKCP18-Overview-

report.pdf

Nesbitt A, Dorling S, Lovett A (2018) A suitability model for viticulture in England and Wales:

opportunities for investment, sector growth and increased climate resilience. Journal of Land Use

Science 13:4, 414-438, DOI: 10.1080/1747423X.2018.1537312

Simpson GB, Jewitt GPW (2019) The development of the water-energy-food nexus as a framework

for achieving resource security: a review. Frontiers in Environmental Science 7:8. doi:

10.3389/fenvs.2019.00008.

Surminski S, Di Mauro M, Baglee JAR, Connell RK, Hankinson J, Haworth AR, Ingirige B, Proverbs D

(2018) Assessing climate risks across different businesses and industries: an investigation of

methodological challenges at national scale for the UK. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal

Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, 376 (2121). DOI:

10.1098/rsta.2017.0307

Sustainability East (2012) A Summary of Climate Change Risks for the East of England: To coincide

with the publication of the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) 2012. Commissioned by the

Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) to coincide with the publication of the

The Registry

UEA Norwich Research Park

Norwich

NR4 7TJ

UK CCRA 2012. Available from: - http://www.greensuffolk.org/assets/Greenest-

County/Adaptation/General/Summary-of-climate-change-risks-to-East-of-England.pdf

UKCIP (2013) BACLIAT (business areas climate assessment tool) vulnerability assessment. UKCIP

Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford. Available at

https://ukcip.ouce.ox.ac.uk/wizard/future-climate-vulnerability/bacliat/

Westervelt DM, Horowitz LW, Naik V, Golaz J-C, Mauzerall DL (2015) Radiative forcing and climate

response to projected 21st century aerosol decreases. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 15:

12681-12703.

Zsamboky M, Fernández-Bilbao A, Smith D, Knight J , Allan J (2011) Impacts of Climate Change on

Disadvantaged UK Coastal Communities. The Joseph Rowntree Foundation. Available at:

https://www.jrf.org.uk/report/impacts-climate-change-disadvantaged-uk-coastal-communities

New Anglia Transport Board

Tuesday 25^th February 2020

Agenda Item 10

Terms of reference review

Author: Ellen Goodwin

Summary

This paper looks to review the terms of reference of the Board in line with the agreement least year to do so

on an annual basis.

Recommendation

The Board are asked to:

 consider the Board’s purpose, aims and objectives;

 approve the revised terms of reference for the Board; and

 consider how the Board will monitor progress against the identified aims and objectives.

Background

The previously agreed terms of reference have been amended to reflect new membership and the LEP

ambitions regarding clean growth. They are attached at Appendix A for the Board’s consideration.

This paper seeks comments from the Board on the proposed purpose:

The New Anglia Transport Board will ensure current & future transport networks meet the needs of

both businesses and residents in order to support clean and inclusive growth.

It also seeks comments on the objectives and expected outcomes:

Objectives:

 The New Anglia Transport Board will provide strategic direction on transport issues by:

 Acting as a forum for information and expertise sharing, discussion and debate

 Acting as a powerful advocate for Norfolk and Suffolk on behalf of the New Anglia LEP

 Maintaining, executing and monitoring the Integrated Transport Strategy Delivery Plan,

 reporting to the Economic Strategy Co-ordinating Delivery Board

 Directing the formation and work programmes of Task and Finish Groups to tackle specific

 topics

 Producing and executing a stakeholder management plan

 Producing a high-level work programme summarising individual scheme progress

 Offering recommendations for prioritisation of projects for delivery and subsequent

 monitoring of outcomes

Expected outcomes:

 A reliable, resilient and integrated transport network with improved capacity and journey

 times, providing good connectivity both within and around New Anglia, and to other UK,

 European and worldwide destinations

 A Delivery Plan for the Integrated Transport Strategy for Norfolk and Suffolk, current and

 valued by transport bodies

 Central government understanding of the transport infrastructure needs and priorities of

 Norfolk and Suffolk businesses and residents to support inward investment and growth

Finally, this paper seeks the Board’s view on how they wish to monitor progress against their agreed

aims and objectives.

Link to the Integrated Transport Strategy

The New Anglia Transport Board will provide a strong voice for Norfolk and Suffolk to ensure that

the best is secured for the area. It will also help to deliver the ambitious objectives set out in the

Norfolk and Suffolk Economic Strategy, the Local Industrial Strategy and the Integrated Transport Strategy

for Norfolk and Suffolk.

Recommendation

The Board are asked to:

 consider the Board’s purpose, aims and objectives;

 approve the revised terms of reference for the Board; and

 consider how the Board will monitor progress against the identified aims and objectives.

Appendix A - terms of reference (2020)

New Anglia Transport Board - Terms of Reference

Introduction

New Anglia LEP is the Local Enterprise Partnership covering the geographical area of Norfolk and

Suffolk.

New Anglia LEP has ambitious plans for driving business growth and productivity in our diverse

economy, for communicating our offer to the world and for driving inclusion and skills. Norfolk and

Suffolk are leading places in the competitive global economy, with a large number of world leading

competitive clusters already based here. In addition Norfolk and Suffolk is positioned as UK’s clean

growth region, the golden thread of our recently endorsed Local Industrial Strategy.

A modern and efficient transport system is key to our future success. A mobile and accessible world-

class economy will ensure that Norfolk and Suffolk retains this enviable position and will benefit

thousands of businesses of all sizes and open significant opportunities in our extensive supply chain

network.

The New Anglia Transport Board will provide a strong voice to ensure that we can secure the best for

the area and deliver the ambitious objectives set out in the Norfolk and Suffolk Economic Strategy, the

Local Industrial Strategy and the Integrated Transport Strategy for Norfolk and Suffolk.

Purpose

The New Anglia Transport Board will ensure current & future transport networks meet the needs of

both businesses and residents in order to support clean and inclusive economic development &

growth.

The New Anglia Transport Board brings together key transport specialists, pooling transport expertise

across the region to help shape the future transport system. It will:

 Understand partners’ transport ambitions

 Ensure the transport network satisfies the needs of business and residents both now and in the

future

 Assess how New Anglia LEP and partners can best deliver the Integrated Transport Strategy

for Norfolk and Suffolk

Specific Activities/Objectives

The New Anglia Transport Board will provide strategic direction on transport issues by:

 Acting as a forum for information and expertise sharing, discussion and debate

 Acting as a powerful advocate for Norfolk and Suffolk on behalf of the New Anglia LEP

 Maintaining, executing and monitoring the Integrated Transport Strategy Delivery Plan, reporting to

the Economic Strategy Co-ordinating Delivery Board

 Directing the formation and work programmes of Task and Finish Groups to tackle specific topics

 Producing and executing a stakeholder management plan

 Producing a high-level work programme summarising individual scheme progress

 Offering recommendations for prioritisation of projects for delivery and subsequent monitoring

of outcomes

Expected outcomes

 A reliable, resilient and integrated transport network with improved capacity and journey times,

providing good connectivity both within and around Norfolk and Suffolk, and to other UK,

European and worldwide destinations

 A Delivery Plan for the Integrated Transport Strategy for Norfolk and Suffolk, current and valued

by transport bodies

 Central government understanding of the transport infrastructure needs and priorities of Norfolk

and Suffolk businesses and residents to support inward investment and growth

Powers

The role of the Board is an advisory one, bringing expertise and transport knowledge. It will feed into

the Investment and Appraisal Committee to enable them to devise, deliver and manage the relevant

programmes.

Composition of the Transport Board (Membership)



ABP



CBI, East of England



Connected Places Catapult



Country Land Owners and Business Association



Department for Transport



East Midlands Trains



Federation of Small Businesses



First Group



Govia Thameslink Railway



Greater Anglia



Highways England



Hutchison Ports



Ipswich Buses



Liftshare



Network Rail



New Anglia LEP



Norfolk Chamber of Commerce



Norfolk County Council



Norfolk district representative



Norwich Airport



Peel Ports



Stansted Airport



Suffolk Chamber of Commerce



Suffolk County Council



Suffolk district representative



Sustrans

Format and Frequency of Meetings

 Meetings will be generally be open to the public

 Meetings will take place quarterly and will take place ahead of Transport East Forums. Venues

will alternate between Ipswich and Norwich

 Format of meetings - Chaired by New Anglia LEP

New Anglia Transport Board

Tuesday 25^th February 2020

Agenda Item 11

Transport Board Forward Plan 2020

Author: Ellen Goodwin

Summary

This paper seeks the Board’s input on the 2020 Forward Plan for the Transport Board with the view

of successfully delivering the Integrated Transport Strategy.

Recommendation

The Board:

 offers suggested input to the Transport Board Forward Plan 2020

Background

The Integrated Transport Strategy, adopted by the LEP Board in May 2018 has the following themes:

 Connecting the East, Accessing the World: Quicker, more reliable and resilient strategic

connections to boost our contribution to UK plc., encouraging improved perceptions, economic

participation and inward investment for our key sectors and competitive clusters.

 Agile to Change: Embracing new technologies and digital connectivity to enable remote access

to services and opportunities to facilitate Mobility as a Service (MaaS).

 Regional Connectivity and Our Priority Places: Keeping people and products moving in and

around our growing Priority Places and Enterprise Zones through new investment,

placemaking, maintenance and an integrated public transport network with opportunities for

walking and cycling.

 Local and Coastal: Innovative on-demand transport solutions and improvements to facilitate local

sustainable growth, walking and cycling, recognising local distinctiveness, and offering access to

services and opportunities through digital means.

Appendix A outlines a draft forward plan for the Board’s input. The Board are asked to consider what

items it would like to consider during the next year.

Link to the Integrated Transport Strategy

Outlined above.

Recommendation

The Board:

 offers suggested input to the Transport Board Forward Plan 2020

Appendix A - Transport Board Forward Plan 2020

Appendix A

New Anglia Transport Board Forward Plan

Date

Venue and Theme

Forward Looking

Governance & Delivery

19 November 2019

County Hall, Norfolk



Ports and airports



Transport East update



RIS2



ITS delivery including Growth Deal

Connecting the East,



Rail

Accessing the World



BREXIT



Maritime Cluster development

25 February 2020

Ipswich Town Hall, Suffolk



Clean growth and resilience - what’s our role?



Review terms of reference



Innovation in transport



Transport East update

Agile to Change



Ely area road/rail improvement



ITS delivery

2 June 2020

County Hall, Norfolk



New crossings



Transport East update - Major Road Network



Integrated ticketing/public transport



ITS delivery including Growth Deal

Regional Connectivity and Our



Future funding opportunities - tbc



Engagement with Transport East

Priority Places

25 August 2020

Endeavour House, Suffolk



Ports and airports



Transport East update



Strategic Road Network



ITS delivery

Connecting the East,



Strategic rail

Accessing the World

Winter 2020 - tbd

Norfolk



Mobility as a Service



Transport East update



Electric vehicles



ITS delivery including Growth Deal

Agile to Change



Use of data